Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Semifinals

Two-time Australian Open winner Aryna Sabalenka dominated her quarterfinals match against Iva Jovic (6-3, 6-0), and she’s one win away from a third straight appearance in the final at Melbourne Park.

Sabalenka will face No. 12 Elina Svitolina, who beat No. 3 Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals in straight sets. Svitolina is making her first semifinal appearance at the Australian Open in her career, and a win would put her in the first final of a Grand Slam in her career.

These two stars have met six times in their respective careers, but Sabalenka has dominated the recent matchups. So, it’s not a surprise that oddsmakers have set the No. 1 player in the world as a -363 favorite to win this matchup.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the semifinals and my prediction for this match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Aryna Sabalenka: -363
Elina Svitolina: +286

Total

21.5 (Over -110/Under -130)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Jan. 29
Time: 3:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina History and Path to Semifinals

Sabalenka and Svitolina have met six times, with the No. 1 player in the world winning five of those matches. Svitolina’s only win came back in 2020, when she beat Sabalenka in three sets at Strasbourg. The 31-year-old beat Sabalenka on clay, and she has not picked up a win since.

Sabalenka has won four matches in a row against Svitolina, including their lone match in 2025 in Madrid. They’ve only matched up once in a Grand Slam, as Sabalenka knocked off Svitolina in the quarterfinals of the 2023 French Open.

Aryna Sabalenka

Can Sabalenka win her third Australian Open title?

The No. 1 player in the world is favored to do so, but Svitolina has given her some trouble before, winning at least one set in three of their six matches all time.

Sabalenka needed just 15 games to dispose of Jovic in the quarterfinals, but she did play tiebreaks over her four sets in the third and fourth rounds.

Still, betting against Sabalenka on a hard court is extremely hard to justify, as she’s made six straight finals at the U.S. and Australian Opens.

Elina Svitolina

This is Svitolina’s first semifinal appearance in a Grand Slam since Wimbledon in 2023, but she’s played well the last two years at Melbourne Park, reaching the quarterfinals in 2025 before this year’s semifinal appearance.

Svitolina has been dominant in this year’s tournament, taking down Gauff with ease (6-1, 6-2) in the quarterfinals. She also knocked off No. 8 Mirra Andreeva in straight sets in the fourth round. Svitolina has not dropped a single set in this year’s Australian Open, and she’s only gone to one tiebreak.

However, Sabalenka has won three of their last four meetings in straight sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina Prediction and Pick

There are a lot of ways to consider betting on this match, so I’ll lay out the few I considered before getting into my pick:

Sabalenka to win in straight sets (-125)
Svitolina to win a set (-110)
Svitolina +4.5 Games (-120)

Even though I think Sabalenka wins this match – given her history against Svitolina – I think the No. 12 player in the world has shown a lot at this Australian Open. Not only did she easily knock off Andreeva and Gauff, but she has converted over 53 percent of her break points returning and won 85.8 percent of her service games in 2026.

That’s a great combination, and she’ll need to be elite when serving against Sabalenka, who has won 90.7 percent of her service games in 2026.

Even though she’s lost to Sabalenka five times, Svitolina has either won or forced a third set in three of their six matches. Since Sabalenka has played some closer matches (by her standards) prior to her quarterfinal win, I think there is some value in betting on a third set at +140.

If Svitolina can continue her dominance in service games so far in 2026, she should be able to make Sabalenka work for a win. I’d much prefer this bet than betting against Sabalenka winning since she’s made three straight Australian Open final appearances.

Pick: OVER 2.5 Sets (+140 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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