Aryna Sabalenka vs. Polina Iatcenko Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Second Round

Aryna Sabalenka has a chance to make history at the 2026 U.S. Open tournament. Chris Evert and Serena Williams are the only women to win the U.S. Open three straight years, but Sabalenka can match that feat with a win this year after capturing the title in both 2024 and 2025.

She's set to face Polina Iatcenko in the second round tonight. Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this marquee match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Polina Iatcenko Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

Aryna Sabalenka -4000 (97.56% implied probability)
Polina Iatcenko +1400

Total Games

OVER 17.5 (-104)
UNDER 17.5 (-128)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Polina Iatcenko How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, September 2
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN2

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Polina Iatcenko: History and U.S. Open Performance

These two have never before faced each other in a professional match.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka has dominated at the U.S. Open throughout her career. In fact, she has made it at least to the semifinals in five straight years, including back-to-back wins. She has a career win rate of 85% at this tournament, her highest win rate at the four Grand Slams.

She defeated Camila Osorio in straight sets in the first round.

Polina Iatcenko

This is the furthest that Polina Iatcenko has ever made it in a Grand Slam Tournament. She does have a win at a WTA 125 tournament: the Caldas da Rainha Open in Portugal last year.

She upset Renata Zarazua in the first round on Sunday.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Polina Iatcenko Prediction and Best Bet

While Iatcenko did well to get to this point, she hasn't done anything in recent competition for me to believe she can hang with the best women's tennis player in the world right now. She lost in the first round of qualifying at the Cincinnati Open last month, and she hasn't won a non-qualifying match at a WTA event prior to her first round this week since the Workday Canberra International in January.

With that being said, I do have some concerns about the form Sabalenka is in right now. She lost to Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Round of 16 at the National Bank Open and then followed that up by getting upset by Sara Bejlek at the Cincinnati Open.

With that being said, Sabalenka should have no problem winning this match, but I think it may take her a bit longer than some people may expect. I'll bet the OVER on the match games total set at 17.5.

Pick: OVER 17.5 Games (-104) via FanDuel

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