AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks, Props Predictions: Betting Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler

The WM Phoenix Open was a heartbreaker for the SI Golf betting panel, as two of our outright picks failed to close the deal late on Sunday. A week after I hit my outright pick, however, those two near misses should provide even more confidence we’re on the right track. It does for me, at least.

Now we look to carry that over to the PGA Tour's first signature event of the season, with a better finish for us, of course.

The SI Golf Betting panel includes SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

MacMillan and Kirschner had Hideki Matsuyama (+2700) and Michael Thorbjornsen (+6000), respectively, last week. Matsuyama bogeyed 18 to fall into a playoff, which he lost when his tee shot landed in the water, and Thorbjornsen made two bogeys on his last three holes to miss the playoff by one stroke.

Scottie Scheffler and defending champion Rory McIlroy headline the event and oddsboard. They’re +300 and +1200 at FanDuel, respectively, to win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The closest group behind them is at +2500. Such is the separation between those two and everyone else.

None of the panelists have exposure on McIlroy, but two put some coin on Scheffler in different markets. Let’s get into the picks from everyone as we look to get our second first-round lead and outright wins of the season.

Pebble Beach betting picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Russell Henley +3000 (FanDuel)

If you want to bet on an accurate golfer, you bet on Russell Henley. That’s just the way it is in the golf betting world. He has quietly been one of the best on the planet over the past six months, posting a top-20 finish in 10 straight starts dating to the Memorial Tournament in June. The last time he finished outside the top 20 was in last year’s PGA Championship. He finished T5 at this event last year, so he has proven he can bring his best at Pebble Beach.

Brian Kirschner: Robert Macintyre +3800 (DraftKings)

Bobby Mac is one of the few people in this field over 30/1 that I truly trust to take down Scottie and Rory. I think that he has the potential to have an excellent season, and it can all start right here with a win. He started his year with a T4 at the Sony Open and struggled at AmEx, which isn’t really his type of event. He just welcomed his first kid into the world and that has produced good outcomes before. I like Bob to contend this week.

Brad Thomas: Scottie Scheffler +320 (Bet365)

I’ll probably be the lone soldier willing to back Scottie Scheffler on this panel, but I have zero hesitation doing it. He was awful on Thursday last week, to the point where missing the cut felt more realistic than contending. Three elite rounds later, he finished just a couple of shots off the lead. Impressive. Scheffler leads this field in Strokes Gained from 75 to 100 yards, and somehow his game keeps improving. His putting has improved and the ball speed is up. He's the King of Signature events. I’m not interested in chasing names around him when the best player in the world is sitting right there.

Byron Lindeque: Justin Rose +2800 (DraftKings)

It is not often that golfers win in back-to-back starts, but the course history for Justin is as rosy as it gets with a win, 11th and 3rd here last year. With very little wind defending Torrey South, he took matters into his own hands and blew the field away at the Farmers in record-setting fashion, with his iron play and putter working wonders all week. He will need that duo to duplicate their dynamic again this week in the first signature event of the year. His win two weeks ago was his second in seven starts and whenever he finds himself in contention, his 45 years of experience really produce under pressure. He grades out as fifth for me this week and with Rose on our card, we are looking to be the thorn in the side of the other 79 golfers teeing it up.

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +3000 (Bet365)

Hovland flirted with the top of the leaderboard a couple of times in Phoenix but fell back late in his first PGA Tour start this season. Regardless, his ball-striking remains top-notch, and his profile should fit nicely. His putter has heated up and Poa has been his best surface. He’s fifth in SG: Approach and Birdie or Better Gained Percentage over the last 24 rounds, and has actually been gaining around the greens. I envision a big year for Vik, and the first win at Pebble would slot right into that.

Brian Giuffra: Ludvig Aberg +4000 (FanDuel)

I was really torn here. Aberg was a WD at AmEx and looked completely lost at Farmers, missing the cut. Then I saw he won the Genesis last year (on a similar West Coast course) after a WD and felt better. Plus, I don’t think you’ll see Aberg at this number often. Felt like the risk was worth the potential reward. He was 2nd here in 2024 and his game fits Pebble/Spyglass perfectly—when on. He’s also proven capable of staring down the best and winning. It’s a bit of a risk considering recent form, but no risk it, no biscuit.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Corey Conners +9400 (DraftKings)

In theory, one of the better iron players on the PGA Tour should do well at Pebble Beach. Of course, a lack of consistency with his putting and an inability to close out wins when he’s in contention are the biggest arguments against the Canadian, but with his odds falling all the way to 94-1, he’s worth a sprinkle at a ball-strikers golf course.

Brian Kirschner: Nick Taylor +8400 (DraftKings)

Nick Taylor really dominates this time of the year with wins at Sony, WMPO and Pebble in his career. He is off to a solid start this year with three top 30 finishes in three events. He gained almost 4 shots on approach last week and gained putting and OTT. He has shown that he has his spots on tour to contend and this is certainly one of them.

Brad Thomas: Ryo Hitsatsune +15000 (DraftKings)

Ryo Hisatsune is the unlikeliest of longshots to have on my card. Before his surge, he was stuck in neutral, bouncing between missed cuts and finishes outside the top 40. Then something flipped at Torrey Pines with a runner-up at the Farmers, followed by a top-10 at the WM Phoenix Open. This course should suit him even better, particularly with his strength in the 75 to 100 yard range. If his putter stays hot, then we could be in the final group on Sunday.

Byron Lindeque: Tom Hoge +27000 (DraftKings)

One of the longest shots I will likely submit for this article comes in the form of the 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner, Tom Hoge. Not only does he have a win here, he also has a trio of top 20 finishes of 17th, 6th and 12th at this venue in the last five years. We saw Hoge in the mix at the American Express just three starts ago, where he has shown to have stellar results in the past too. Once known as one of the best iron players on tour, the arrival of Mini Hoge just over a year ago saw his approach numbers decline. However, he still remains an incredible wedge player, where he will be able to drop some dad dimes from 100-150, roughly half the time he is approaching the green. He has gained over 1.5 strokes putting per round in three of his last five trips here, and with him averaging +0.7 per round on the greens in 2026 so far, the putting ceiling this week is that of a penthouse!

Cody Williams: Ryan Gerard +6600 (BetMGM)

Have we forgotten that Gerard has gone runner-up, runner-up, tied-runner-up, T11 in his last four starts? I didn’t. His approach play has been excellent, sitting at sixth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, and he’s been strong around the greens and scoring in relation to the fields he’s played in as well. The two concerns would be the driver getting a little wonky at times and his putter. But his best surface is Poa and he should be able to club down plenty at a shorter venue. He could be live.

Brian Giuffra: Sepp Straka +6300 (DraftKings)

I always find this market tougher at signature events because longshots rarely beat such a top-heavy field. I also don’t abide by the idea that a longshot has to be a certain number, like +10000 or whatever. I could argue my Ludvig outright pick is a longshot. That said, for this event I didn’t consider anyone with shorter than +6000 odds. It took me a while to find Straka at this number, but I did it and, like Aberg, feel it offers value. He was T7 at Pebble last year and has had success at similar courses in the past. T18 at Phoenix last week losing 2.8 strokes putting, if the short stick pops this week, we should be in contention.

First Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Matt Fitzpatrick +3900 (DraftKings)

Matt Fitzpatrick was on the cusp of being the first-round leader at the WM Phoenix Open, but ending the round with back-to-back bogeys ended up costing him. He put together a solid tournament overall, finishing in solo ninth while ranking third in the field in strokes gained tee to green. Let’s see if he can carry that momentum into a strong opening round at Pebble Beach.

Byron Lindeque: Denny McCarthy +7800 (DraftKings)

Over the last 13 months, Denny McCarthy has averaged the 10th most strokes on Thursdays, gaining +1.8 on the field to begin tournaments. We have a two-course rotation for the first two rounds this week, with Denny playing Pebble Beach first, while the other half of the field plays a more difficult Spyglass Hill. In addition to his opening round rampages, McCarthy has the 5th best spike round at Pebble Beach in the last five years. He gained +6.9 on the field in 2023 when he shot a Sunday 64 en route to a back-door top 4. He has also gained +3 strokes on the field in the opening round of the 2024 rendition of this event. A delightful number for a true R1 juggernaut.

Cody Williams: Scottie Scheffler +1100 (DraftKings)

Consider this my formal protest of first-round leader bets. If Scottie Scheffler is playing, I’m betting him as FRL. It’s always in play, he’s probably going to win, and I’ll take on some more risk at better odds to have some investment in him for the week.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley +3900 (DraftKings)

I considered making Henley my outright pick, but instead found him with better odds in the FRL market. T5 last year and plenty of strong finishes on comp courses, Henley can go low when the approach and putter work in tandem. His putter let him down at the AmEx, but he gained over 10 (!!) strokes on approach. Length won’t be an issue and I expect Henley’s putter to be hot on a course where he gained over 8 (!) strokes putting last year.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Shane Lowry Top 20 +186 (DraftKings)

Shane Lowry had a great fall swing of events on the DP World Tour, posting four straight T12 finishes or better. He’s known as an accurate iron player and is fifth in the field in strokes-gained approach over the past six months. Now, he returns to an event he finished runner-up at last season. All we need from him is a top 20 finish to cash this plus-money prop.

Brian Kirschner: Max McGreevy Top 20 +280 (DraftKings)

Max is one of the most accurate drivers in the field and can play well on shorter courses. He has also won an event at Pebble in his career. He has played solidly to start his year and I think he should feel comfortable at this course.

Brad Thomas: Justin Rose Top 20 w/ties -105 (DraftKings)

Justin Rose for a top-20 finish stands out as one of the stronger placement options this week. Rose is coming off a dominant performance at the Farmers Insurance Open, and even with a missed cut at The American Express, his game has been excellent. His course history only strengthens the argument. In his last three appearances here, Rose has recorded a win (2023), a solo third (2025), and a T11 (2024). In an 80-man field, with those credentials, it’s a no-brainer for me.

Byron Lindeque: Russell Henley Top 20 w/ties +115 (BetRivers)

He has not finished outside the top 20 in any of his last 10 starts. We get plus money in this market after finishing T5 here last year. Nothing more to this bet than that.

Cody Williams: Pierceson Coody Top 20 w/ties +150 (BetMGM)

This has already cashed once for me this year, and would’ve cashed in all four weeks that Coody has played to this point as well. That’s how good he’s playing. He’s Top 20 in both SG: Approach and Around the Green, but is also stands out that he’s second in SG: Putting on Poa in this field. He’s playing the best golf of his career, and even at a new venue in this field, his ball-striking is more than good enough to get him a fifth consecutive Top 20.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley Top 20 w/ties +115 (BetRivers)

This is a pretty amazing price for a player who has finished inside the Top 20 in 10 straight events and was, as mentioned, T5 here last year. He only has two Top 20s in six appearances at this event, but four of them were before he rose to stardom two years ago. I’ll bet on current form over history here.

Final Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -15
Brian Kirschner: -17
Brad Thomas: -16
Byron Lindeque: -19
Cody Williams: -18
Brian Giuffra: -19

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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