Baylor vs. SMU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 2

Two former Southwest Conference foes collide Saturday afternoon when Baylor visits SMU in Dallas, and the betting market expects fireworks.

Baylor enters at 0-1 after being manhandled by Auburn in the trenches, exposing defensive flaws that Dave Aranda has yet to solve. SMU, meanwhile, rolled to a comfortable 42-13 win over East Texas A&M and has now won 15 of its last 16 home games under Rhett Lashlee.

With both offenses running at top-10 tempos nationally, oddsmakers have hung one of the highest totals of Week 2 — and it might not be high enough.

Baylor vs. SMU Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Baylor +2.5 (-105)
SMU -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Baylor (+112)
SMU (-134)

Total

Over 65.5 (-110)
Under 65.5 (-110)

Baylor vs. SMU How to Watch

Date: Saturday, September 6, 2025
Game Time: 12 p.m. ET
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
How to Watch (TV): The CW Network
Baylor Record: 0-1
SMU Record: 1-0

Baylor vs. SMU Key Player to Watch

Kevin Jennings, Quarterback — SMU

Kevin Jennings is the centerpiece of SMU’s offense, and his ability to blend pace with precision makes him the player to watch in this matchup. Jennings didn’t need to unleash his legs in the opener, but last season he piled up more than 260 designed rushing yards and routinely extended drives when plays broke down.

His Week 1 efficiency — completing over 70% of throws for 260 yards — underscored just how comfortable he looks in Lashlee’s system. Against a Baylor defense that just missed 23 tackles versus Auburn and is thin up front after Jackie Marshall’s ankle sprain, Jennings’ dual-threat profile is especially dangerous.

If Baylor commits bodies to contain SMU’s run game, Jennings has the arm talent and receivers like Romello Brinson to punish them vertically. Simply put, if he’s in rhythm, SMU’s offense becomes nearly impossible to slow at home.

Baylor vs. SMU Prediction and Pick

Baylor’s revamped offense under Jake Spavital showed signs of life against Auburn, with Sawyer Robertson throwing for 419 yards and three touchdowns, and slot receivers Kole Wilson and Michael Trigg consistently winning matchups. Spavital also cranked the tempo to 22.1 seconds per snap, which combined with SMU’s blistering 20-second pace sets the stage for a possession-heavy, high-scoring shootout.

On the other side, Baylor’s defense looked like one of the nation’s worst against the run, ranking bottom-10 nationally in both tackling and run-stopping grades after Week 1. That’s a glaring problem against an SMU offense that forced missed tackles from three different backs in the opener and averaged more than 7.0 yards per play.

Even if Baylor stiffens in spurts, their tempo ensures quick turnarounds, putting extra strain on an already battered front seven. The script points to sustained scoring from both sides in a game where punts should be rare and defensive stops at a premium.

Pick: Over 65.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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