Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for Arkansas-Arizona, Texas-Purdue, Upset Pick)

Let the Madness continue!

The Sweet 16 finally tips off on Thursday night with a four-game slate that features the Big Ten champion, the Big 12 champion and a First Four team that is the only double-digit seed remaining:

Thursday’s Sweet 16 Games

Texas vs. Purdue
Iowa vs. Nebraska
Arkansas vs. Arizona
Illinois vs. Houston

The SI Betting team is wagering on all of these games, but I’ve narrowed down my three favorite picks for Thursday’s slate, including an upset pick in the South Region.

Best College Basketball Bets for Thursday’s Sweet 16 Games

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Iowa (+110) vs. Nebraska

These teams split their two meetings during the regular season, and Iowa may be able to take advantage of the Cornhuskers on the glass after knocking off Florida in the Round of 32.

Florida is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, yet the Hawkeyes outrebounded them and forced 11 turnovers in Sunday’s win. Nebraska doesn’t rebound well on the offensive glass (311th in the country in offensive rebound rate), so we should see a lot of one-and-done possessions in this Sweet 16 matchup.

The Hawkeyes are going to have their hands full with Nebraska’s shooting, but the Cornhuskers allow a ton of 3-point attempts (361st in opponent 3-point rate) despite holding opponents to 30.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Iowa’s offense is super efficient – 18th in effective field goal percentage – and I think it is live to pull off an upset.

Texas-Purdue OVER 147.5 (-120)

Bart Torvik’s matchup predictor has this game finishing with 155 combined points, so I think we’re getting a pretty good number here at 147.5.

Purdue has the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom, ranking ninth in effective field goal percentage, sixth in 3-point percentage and 18th in turnover rate. However, defensively the Boilermakers are just 33rd in KenPom’s rankings and have the No. 218 opponent eFG% in the country.

That could help Texas hang around on Thursday, especially since the Longhorns are 15th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in free-throw rate. Texas ranks outside the top 80 in adjusted defensive efficiency, as it simply doesn’t turn opponents over this season (350th in opponent turnover rate).

More possessions that end in a shot is a good sign for an OVER, and the OVER is 20-17 in Purdue’s games and 19-15 in Texas’ games this season.

Arizona -7.5 (-112) vs. Arkansas

These are two elite offenses, as Arizona is fourth in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency while the Razorbacks clock in at No. 5.

Still, I think the Wildcats are a far deeper team and aren’t reliant on one player to win them games. Darius Acuff has become the star of the tournament for John Calipari’s Razorbacks, but can he score enough to hold off an Arizona team that has five players averaging 10 or more points per game and seven players averaging at least 8.8 points per game?

For Arkansas to cover, it’ll need an elite offensive game, which it is capable of since the Razorbacks are 14th in eFG% and No. 1 in the country in turnover rate.

Despite that, I can’t look past the defense, which is 53rd in KenPom and outside the top-150 in opponent eFG%. The Razorbacks allowed 78 points to Hawaii and 88 to High Point, so Arizona’s offense should be able to get whatever it wants in this game. This should be a high-scoring game, and I’ll trust the No. 1-seeded Wildcats to pull away with a win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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