Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for UMBC-Howard, NC State-Texas)

Let the Madness begin!

Tuesday night is the official start of the 2026 NCAA Tournament as two First Four matchups will whittle down the field from 68 teams to just 66 teams left as we prepare for the first round on Thursday.

The No. 16 UMBC Retrievers and No. 16 Howard Bison face off for the chance to play No. 1 Michigan in the first round, and oddsmakers are expecting a barnburner with the Retrievers set as just 1.5-point favorites.

Then, the No. 11 NC State Wolfpack are looking to rebound from a down finish to the regular season against the SEC’s No. 11 Texas Longhorns. This game also has a very close spread, as the Longhorns are 1.5-point favorites but the moneyline odds at DraftKings are the same (-110) for both teams.

The SI Betting team has been sharing our favorite picks and predictions for college basketball all season long in our “Daily Dunk” column, and the NCAA Tournament is no different.

Here’s where I’m leaning for each of these First Four matchups on Tuesday night.

Best College Basketball Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

NC State-Texas OVER 157.5 (-112)

NC State and Texas are two of the best OVER teams in the country this season, and I think we’ll see yet another high-scoring game in this First Four matchup.

The OVER is 21-12 in the Wolfpack’s games and 19-12 in the Longhorn’s games this season, and both teams are much more potent on offense than they are on defense.

Texas ranks 61st in the country in effective field goal percentage on offense, but it’s outside the top-100 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, coming in at No. 112. The Longhorns don’t play at a fast pace (No. 206 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo), but they are very vulnerable from beyond the arc this season, allowing opponents to shoot 36.0 percent from deep (299th in the country).

On the offensive side of the ball, Texas isn’t just a good shooting team. It ranks fourth in the country in free-throw rate, and the ability to get points with the clock stopped is key to any OVER bet – especially with a total this high.

As for the Wolfpack, they have a bunch of things working in their favor on offense, starting with how well they take care of the ball. N.C. State is eighth in the country in turnover rate, and it should maximize possessions against a Texas team that is 346th in the country in opponent turnover rate.

The Wolfpack also are ninth in the country in 3-point percentage, which plays right into one of Texas’ biggest defensive weaknesses. On the defensive end of the floor, NC State allows opponents to shoot 35.6 percent from 3 (284th in the country). In fact, the Wolfpack are just 265th in opponent effective field goal percentage this season.

Simply put, these two defenses are pretty shaky, and we’ve seen these teams thrive on offense, as they’re both averaging over 83 points per game. If they come near that number on Tuesday, this OVER should hit with ease.

UMBC Moneyline (-122) vs. Howard

The Howard Bison are the best team in the country against the spread this season, covering in 71.4 percent of their games.

Yet, I’m fading the MEAC champs in this First Four battle with UMBC.

The Retrievers won the American East with relative ease this season, winning their last 12 games while putting together multiple double-digit wins in the conference tournament. UMBC has not lost a game since Jan. 29, and it outranks the Bison in KenPom.

UMBC clocks in as the No. 185 team in the country while Howard is No. 207. The Retrievers are inside the top-200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but Howard’s offense (283rd in adjusted offensive efficiency) could be a major concern in this game.

The Bison are just 208th in the country in effective field goal percentage and they have turned the ball over at a higher rate than any team in the NCAA Tournament, ranking 342nd in the country in turnover rate. That’s an area where UMBC has a major advantage, as it’s 25th in the country in turnover rate this season.

The Retrievers also rank in the top-80 in the country in both eFG% on offense and opponent eFG% on defense. They have limited opponents' ability to get to the line as well, ranking eighth in the country in opponent free-throw rate.

Howard profiles as a better defensive team (29th in opponent eFG% and seventh in opponent turnover rate), but I’m not sold on it winning the turnover battle against this UMBC team.

The Retrievers have covered the spread in 63.3 percent of their games, and I think they’re the better team in this matchup. I’ll lay this small price on them to win outright on Tuesday.

Best College Basketball Bets Today

NC State-Texas OVER 157.5 (-112)

UMBC Moneyline (-122) vs. Howard

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