Best College Football Bets for College Football Playoff First Round

The College Football Playoff is here and we have bets!

With a first time triple header in the first round of the 12-team CFP, we have you covered with a best bet on the trio of games that feature the likes of Tennessee traveling to face Ohio State and Penn State hosting SMU in first round action.

Below, you’ll get a deep dive on each game on Saturday’s historic card.

Best Bets for College Football Playoff First Round

Penn State -8.5 vs. SMU
Clemson vs. Texas UNDER 50.5
Tennessee +7.5 vs. Ohio State

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

SMU vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

While SMU shook off some turnovers early against Clemson, I do believe that it’s notable that the Mustangs struggled with the pass rush of the Tigers for much of that game as Jennings was flushed out of the pocket often.

The team faces an even tougher pass rush in Penn State, which is No. 7 in pass rush grading per Pro Football Focus. The Nittany Lions are led by defensive end Abdul Carter and should be able to win in the trenches against what is an out-matched SMU offensive line.

While the Mustangs may be able to hit some downfield passes, I do believe the team will struggle to sustain drives on the road in what may be a cold, winter afternoon in Happy Valley.

The SMU offense will need to hit on a handful of explosive plays and pounce on turnovers to set up short fields to generate enough scoring chances against the Penn State offense.

While the Mustangs' defense has been elite against the run all season, top five in EPA/Rush, I do believe some of that is aided by its schedule of opponents. The Nittany Lions will have far and away the best rush offense the ‘Stangs have seen, averaging more than five yards per carry and an offensive line that is top 25 in both tackles for loss allowed and line yards.

With a successful run game, I believe that can set up timely deep shots for Allar and the Nittany Lions, who should be able to find holes in the SMU secondary, which is outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate allowed.

I believe Penn State has a level that SMU will struggle to get to on the road with its ability to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball and get a routine cover.

Clemson vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

There are questions for both sides in this postseason matchup, but far more concern lies in the big underdog Clemson.

The Tigers have scored a total of 17 points in two games against SEC defenses this season in Georgia and South Carolina. The Clemson offensive line has been a sore point all season as the team has struggled to hold up against any elite defensive line play, even in the ACC.

Against ACC and SEC foes, Clemson posted more than five yards per play just once (against South Carolina) in games against teams with a top 50 defensive line in terms of pass rush grade. Texas ranks third in that metric, according to Pro Football Focus, which I believe will weigh heavily on the Clemson offense.

While the Tigers may have some success passing on a Texas secondary that hasn’t been challenged that much this season as the Clemson passing game has come together, I believe that the team won’t sustain drives with too many negative plays.

It’s worth noting that Clemson’s lead running back Phil Mafah has been dealing with an injury that has limited the team’s overall effectiveness and becoming more of a pass-happy offense. To me, the team will become too predictable and forced to pass too often to keep up during the course of 60 minutes.

Meanwhile, the Texas offense has lacked the explosiveness we have become accustomed to, but the offense is still elite, ranking top 30 in yards per play and points per drive. While Ewers has struggled at times with his downfield passing, completing only 34% of his passes of more than 20 yards on 11% of his dropbacks, per PFF, I believe the Texas offense can find enough positive drives to keep Clemson at bay.

I also think Texas has more counters with a potent ground game and the possibility of integrating Arch Manning in the quarterback run game. I believe Texas missed an opportunity to use Manning in the SEC title game, and it played a part in the team losing that game. I believe Sarkisian can use him to give Clemson different looks in this one while the Tigers have very limited paths to success and sustaining drives.

Overall, I believe we see Texas play a conservative game and look to avoid mistakes to give Clemson short fields like it had against SMU early in the game to build a double digit lead despite averaging less than four yards per play in the game.

All roads lead to the under in this one.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Ohio State went away from what was working in the Michigan game, and it ended up costing the team a chance at the Big Ten Championship. Despite finding constant success in the passing game, the team had a 60-40 run-pass split that had the team stall in Michigan territory far too often.

The team has a similar matchup against Tennessee, who is elite at stopping the run and has an edge on the defensive line with Ohio State slated to be down several starting offensive linemen who have suffered season ending injuries.

The Vols run stopping unit is among the best in the country, allowing less than three yards per carry and 11th in EPA/Rush, but the secondary can be had. While still a sturdy unit, the group is 24th in EPA/Pass and will face arguably the best pass catching group in the country.

If Ohio State opts to go to the pass more often, I believe the team can move the ball enough to lean on its sturdy defense and scratch out a low-scoring win. However, the Vols pass rush may keep a lid on the Buckeyes high end outcomes behind pass rusher James Pearce that anchors a unit that is top 10 in the country in tackles for loss and top EPA/Play.

However, the Vols offense may also struggle. While there are avenues to success as Ohio State isn’t familiar with the Josh Heupel offense that spreads its offense out wide and plays at a fast tempo, the team hasn’t been as dangerous in the passing game. Iamaleava hasn’t been able to connect on deep passes with enough consistency this season and the group has become more of a run-first offense around lead back Dylan Sampson. Tennessee averages more than five yards per carry, but overall is outside the top 100 in explosive rush and pass rate.

The Ohio State defense should have the edge, especially at putting the Vols behind the sticks. The Buckeyes have the best early down EPA/Play mark in the nation, per Gameonpaper, and rank top 20 in both EPA/Rush and success rate allowed on the ground.

To me, I believe this game becomes a defensive struggle as both teams try to establish the run and fall behind the sticks against elite defensive lines while each quarterback lacks the consistency to challenge the opposing secondary, making for a battle for field position for much of this one.

With so many question marks on the Ohio State offensive line, I do question the team’s ability to blowout a Tennessee team that can shut down its run game.

Overall, I’m inclined to take the points in a postseason setting.

Best Bets for College Football Playoff First Round

SMU vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Clemson vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Tennessee vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

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