Best College Football Bets for Conference Championship Weekend: How to Bet on Texas in SEC Championship

It’s the culmination of a long season this weekend when nine conference championships are handed out.

So, what’s the play?

We have you covered with betting coverage for every conference championship game here, but below we are going to hand out three wagers for the AAC Championship between Tulane and Army, the SEC Championship between Texas and Georgia and the ACC Championship between SMU and Clemson.

Best College Football Bets for Conference Championship Weekend

Tulane Team Total OVER 26.5
Texas 1H -1.5
SMU -2.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tulane vs. Army Prediction and Pick

Tulane has solved the triple option once this season, shutting out Navy on the road a few weeks back, but it’s worth noting that the Army offense is operating at a far higher efficiency heading into this game.

However, the Black Knights will be up against it trying to slow down this Tulane offense that has blitzed the entire league up until Memphis solved them on Thanksgiving night.

Army doesn’t have the ability to match up with Tulane’s offense, though, especially when citing that the Green Wave were minus three in turnover margin in the loss. The Black Knights' inability to get into the backfield will have the Green Wave ahead of schedule when it possesses the ball. Further, the only offense that Army has faced inside the top 50 in EPA/Play, Notre Dame, hung 49 points on the Black Knights.

Army’s offense has been hard to stop all season, but Tulane’s defense has showcased an elite ability to win at the line of scrimmage, massive at stopping Army from picking up a head of steam in its triple option attack. The Green Wave check in 28th in defensive line yards and 34th in tackles for loss, which can put Army in uncomfortable situations early and often.

I believe Tulane has the firepower to push ahead of Army, but I do believe this point spread is correct in that Green Wave are the superior opponent. Instead, I’ll target the team total over for the road favorite, who should be able to hit enough explosives to get in the end zone four times.

PICK: Tulane Team Total OVER 26.5

Georgia vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

While Georgia was able to suffocate the Texas offense in the first meeting in Austin, I do believe that the Longhorns are equipped to handle the Bulldogs in the second meeting and win the SEC Championship in its first season.

For starters, Texas may be onto something on offense, deploying more run-first schemes with backup Arch Manning stepping in for the hobbled Ewers. Georgia has consistently struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season, allowing more than 100 yards on the ground to the likes of Jalen Milroe and Hyanes King as well as struggling to contain Jaxson Dart.

While Manning may only be used rarely, this facet of the game may be the most effective one for the Longhorns as it tries to keep Georgia off balance.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs offense continues to fall behind in games as the passing game lacks a game breaking talent.

In the first meeting, Georgia got ahead due to its ability to get pressure on Ewers and lean on its ground game in a run-heavy game script, but that has been far from the norm for Georgia this season, who has had to comeback in a majority of its games in SEC play.

Further, Georgia will likely be without Trevor Etienne for this one, the team’s top running back. In the game against Texas, Etienne ran for 87 yards on 19 carries with three touchdowns. Overall, Georgia has had a middling run game all season, ranking 79th in yards per carry and 106th in explosive rush rate. Without its top RB, I believe the Bulldogs are going to be behind the sticks early and often.

Look for Texas to get out to an early lead in this one behind a sound script from Steve Sarkisian and eventually win the SEC Championship in its first season as the team is well positioned to pounce on a potentially gassed Georgia team following a grueling eight overtime game.

Texas is nearly +16 in the first half of games on average this season while Georgia is a far worse +1. Take the ‘Horns early.

PiCK: Texas First Half -1.5

Clemson vs. SMU Prediction and Pick

There’s a pretty clear difference between SMU and Clemson, and while there may be some gripes about the Mustangs’ lack of difficult opponents, the team has done little to cause much concern in a matchup against the Tigers, who have struggled against its toughest opponents.

As noted last week in Reed ‘Em and Weep, Clemson has fallen off big time against elite pass rushes.

“Against the three elite pass rushes the team has faced, Clemson has failed to crack more than five yards per play against Georgia, Louisville, and Pitt.”

While Clemson was able to surpass six yards per play in the loss, the team struggled with negative plays far too often, posting a sub-par EPA/Play mark. Further, the team’s struggles on defense were showcased against an explosive South Carolina offense.

The Tigers' rush defense is bottom 20 in the country in explosive rush rate, which is a big part of the SMU offense that has a capable runner in Jennings at quarterback as well as running back Brashard Smith, who is averaging six yards per carry and has at least a 19 yard run in all but one game this season.

Meanwhile, I believe far too much pressure will fall on Klubnik’s arm as the SMU defensive line ranks top 15 in the country in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus. The ‘Stangs are allowing less than three yards per carry and are tops in EPA/Rush, a huge edge against a Clemson offense that is typically buoyed by running back Phil Mafah. However, Mafah is starting to slow down as the season goes on, averaging about three yards per carry over the last three games.

SMU is far more versatile and has the edge over a Clemson team that has failed to live up to the hype when it faces similar competition.

PICK: SMU -2.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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