Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 13: Can Mississippi State Score First SEC Win?

The season is winding down, and teams are trying to finish on a high note.

For Mississippi State, it's been a trying year for the Bulldogs in year one of Jeff Lebby's tenure. However, can the team score its first SEC win at home against a ranked team in Missouri on Saturday, who has been battling injuries and a handful of close calls?

Let's find some upset picks to bet on in Week 13!

College Football Upset Picks for Week 13

Rutgers (+100) vs. Illinois
East Carolina (+135) vs. North Texas
Mississippi State (+235) vs. Missouri

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Rutgers vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

The formula to beat Illinois is simple, get pressure on the quarterback, and run the ball well.

The Fighting Illini have struggled in the trenches all season long, and Rutgers sets up to have matchup edges on both sides of the ball.

The Scarlet Knights are 31st in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus, which can lead to drop-off from the Illinois passing game. Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer is completing only 45% of his passes on dropbacks that are under pressure, posting a 44% passer grade.

Meanwhile, look for the healthy Kyle Monangai to have a big day on the ground for Rutgers on his senior day, Illinois is 107th in EPA/Rush.

It’s a small underdog, but an underdog nonetheless.

East Carolina vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick

With the highest total on the board in Week 13 let’s key in on some variance and take the underdog.

East Carolina has been on a tear since firing head coach Mike Houston as the offense has found its footing and is going to a bowl game. The Pirates have won three straight and have scored 56, 49 and 38 points in those victories.

The team travels to Denton to take on a North Texas team that is trending in the opposite direction, losing four straight games, the last two by double digits.

While the Mean Green play at a top 20 pace and have an ability to score in bunches, quarterback Chandler Morris has thrown four interceptions in the last two games with only one touchdown. Further, ECU plays even faster and is happy to get into a shootout while playing far better football.

The Mean Green need a win for bowl eligibility, but I don’t like the trajectory of the team and don’t believe the team should be favored against the surging Pirates.

Mississippi State vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Missouri’s Brady Cook gutted out an injury in a near upset against South Carolina, are we sure he’s going to be able to hold up physically?

Remember, Cook has been banged up for about a month and was just announced in prior to kickoff, how will he do in an up-and-down affair with Mississippi State?

The Bulldogs are the worst team in the conference, but have been playing inspired ball on offense under first year head coach Jeff Lebby. I believe that this team has enough juice to push a Missouri team that hasn’t beaten a Power Four team by more than a touchdown all season and has enough motivation to try and score a first league win under its new coach.

With a BYE week to prepare, and at home, I think there is more variance in this one than the betting odds indicate.

College Football Upset Picks for Week 13

Rutgers vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

East Carolina vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick

Mississippi State vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

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