Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Nick Castellanos, Aaron Judge)

We’re nearing the close of the first weekend in Major League Baseball, and plenty of players have already left the yard to get their 2025 season off to a fast start.

On Sunday, we have a loaded slate that begins with several starts around 1 p.m. EST and culminates with the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres facing off on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.

When it comes to betting on players to hit a home run, I like to look at previous player performance against a starting pitcher, their splits against lefties and righties and – of course – their recent performance.

Since we’re so early into the 2025 season, these picks may seem a little more like dart throws – or simply based off of past performance. But, this a fun market to get involved in since hitting a home run prop not only means you get to see a long ball, but there are also pretty favorable odds offered with them.

Here are a few players that I’m targeting for Sunday, March 30.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Sunday, March 30

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+425)
Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+225)

Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+425)

Last season, Philadelphia Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos dominated left-handed pitching, hitting .269 with a .506 slugging percentage and 10 of his 23 home runs.

Now, Castellanos is taking on Washington Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker on Sunday. While Parker allowed just 18 homers last season, he did give one up to Castellanos, who had just two at bats against the youngster.

Given Castellanos’ prowess against left-handed pitching, he’s worth a shot at north of 4/1 odds on Sunday.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+225)

Am I overreacting to Aaron Judge’s three-home, 14 total base effort on Saturday?

Maybe.

But, the reigning AL MVP has a slash line of .500/.500/1.600 to open the 2025 season, and he’s already hit three home runs. On top of that, Judge has a pair of extra-base hits in his career against Milwaukee starter Aaron Civale.

Overall, Civale allowed 29 homers in 31 starts last season, making him extremely vulnerable to giving up a long ball at Yankee Stadium. I’m buying Judge to go deep once again on Sunday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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