Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Aaron Judge, Andy Pages)

Breaking down the best home run picks as the MLB playoffs start on Tuesday, September 30.

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is a good bet to go deep on Tuesday night. / John Jones-Imagn Images

The MLB regular season may be over, but we still have a month of playoff baseball to bet on some home run props.

There are four games on the docket on Tuesday, and the stakes couldn’t be higher as the postseason gets underway.

At SI Betting, we share our favorite home run props for every day of the MLB season, and there are a few players worth targeting on Tuesday as the playoffs begin, including a pair of longshots and Aaron Judge at home.

Here’s a complete breakdown of these home run props for Tuesday, September 30:

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, Sept. 30

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Dansby Swanson to Hit a Home Run (+760)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+234)
• Andy Pages to Hit a Home Run (+598)

Dansby Swanson to Hit a Home Run (+760)

The San Diego Padres are giving the ball to Nick Pivetta to start the postseason, and that could be a decision that haunts them. The righthander is a boom-or-bust type of pitcher who can rack up the strikeouts but also give up a few longballs.

Pivetta has struggled on the road this season, going 5-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 13 home runs allowed in 78.2 innings across 14 starts as opposed to 8-1 with a 2.36 ERA and just nine home runs allowed in 103 innings (17 starts) at home.

There may be a few batters worth looking at on the Cubs (Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong, namely), but playoff baseball provides opportunities for weird heroes, and Dansby Swanson can be just that.

Swanson has homered twice off of Pivetta in 34 at-bats in his career. One of those came on a cold spring day back on April 5 as Pivetta lasted just three innings in a loss at Wrigley Field. I’ll take a stab at Swanson coming up big at this +760 price.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+234)

Aaron Judge finished the season with 53 home runs and is looking for more as the playoffs begin. For a bit, it looked like Judge may not reach 50 home runs, but then he smacked four dingers in as many games to clear it.

Judge has homered in two of his last three games, three of his last five, and four of his last eight contest overall. He also had a home run in two of three games at Fenway Park on September 12 and 14.

One of those home runs came off of Red Sox starter Garrett Crochet. Judge is still only three for 15 against the southpaw in his career, but two of those three hits have left the yard. He had five home runs in 13 games against Boston this season.

Andy Pages to Hit a Home Run (+598)

If you ask baseball fans to name players on the Dodgers, they’ll get through a list of stars before naming Andy Pages. However, the 24-year-old outfielder broke out in a big way during his sophomore season with 27 home runs.

The large majority of Pages’ home runs came at Dodger Stadium, with 19 dingers in 79 games as opposed to just eight in 77 road contests.

Pages has also had plenty of success against Reds starter Hunter Greene. They’ve only faced each other five times in their young careers, but Pages took him deep in three of those at-bats.

I’ll take the nearly 6/1 odds that Pages goes deep again.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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