Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Elly De La Cruz, George Springer, Freddie Freeman)

Sean Treppedi | May 15, 2025

Freddie Freeman draws a juicy matchup against the Athletics on Thursday to consider his home run prop. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Thursday’s slate of MLB action features only six matchups, with four matinee games to wager. With a more limited schedule on tap, it’s an optimal day to dive into some longshots by punting on a few home run props, starting with White Sox-Reds at 12:41 p.m. ET. 

I’m projecting this game to feature plenty of offense on both sides, but Reds infielder Elly De La Cruz is who I’m targeting to hit a long ball in an advantageous pitching matchup. 

I will also break down why George Springer and Freddie Freeman should draw consideration at the plate against the Tampa Bay Rays and Athletics, respectively. 

Here’s my betting angle on each of these three hitters for Thursday, May 15.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, May 15

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+350)
• George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+470)
• Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+350)

The Reds are no power-hitting club to write home about, but White Sox right-hander Bryse Wilson raises some serious questions on how well he can contain high exit velocity. Wilson’s Statcast profile reveals he’s vulnerable all over the place, ranking in the bottom percentile of expected slug percentage to expected weighted on-base average, both metrics that take batted ball quality into account. 

Elly De La Cruz is capable of blasting the ball at some of the majors’ highest exit velocities, maxing out at 114.9 mph this season. He’s beginning to heat up with two home runs in his last four games and holds a home run to fly ball ratio of approximately 20%.

That’s bad news for Wilson, who is relinquishing 1.63 home runs per nine innings.

Plus, let’s not forget De La Cruz’s switch-hitting acumen, in which he’s been able to capitalize most against righties while hitting as a lefty with a .259 average, his highest of any scenario. 

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+470)

It’s not the brightest season in Toronto as this is a team that ranks No. 26 overall in home runs, but a 35-year-old George Springer is tied for the team lead.

No, Springer has never gotten a hit off Zack Littell in eight plate appearances, but his expected metrics are off the charts this season. Springer is hitting barreled balls in the top echelon of the league at 18.2%, reaching an exit velocity of 98 mph or higher per Statcast. And speaking of exit velocity, he’s averaging 93 mph, which ranks him the No. 25 player overall.

Littell dwells in the bottom 10% of exit velocity allowed while giving up almost two home runs per nine innings according to FanGraphs. 

Springer has flourished against right-handed hitting this season, batting .292, so I’m rolling the dice on his sixth home run of 2025 on Thursday. 

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+310)

It’s an obvious choice, but why not take the longshot payout potential against the Athletics? 

Freeman struck out three times in the Dodgers’ mighty 9-3 response to the loss they took to the A’s the day prior. I’m expecting him to rebound on Thursday against Osvaldo Bido, who is giving up 1.94 home runs per nine innings. He’s also been knocked around for nine home runs in his last five starts, no less.

Freeman’s season residing amongst the MLB’s power hitting elite is just another day at the office as he is raking a 22% home run to flyball ratio while tied for second on the roster with nine on the game’s second-best home run team. 

The former MVP’s membership in the top 1% in weighted on-base average, which measures a player’s overall offensive contributions per plate appearance, should give Bido a handful at Dodger Stadium.

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