Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Ozzie Albies, William Contreras)

The 2026 MLB season is over a month old, and Friday’s 15-game slate is a great way to kick off the month of May.

So, why don’t we head into the weekend with a home run prop winner?

Betting on home run props can be tricky, but there are usually some pretty favorable odds associated with those picks. That happens to be the case for two of my plays on May 1, as William Contreras is north of 5/1 to go deep while an Atlanta Braves star is nearing 5/1 in the latest odds.

Plus, I’m targeting New York Yankees star Aaron Judge, as he takes on the Baltimore Orioles and a lefty that he’s dominated in his career.

Here’s a breakdown of each prop – and the latest odds – to open the month of May.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

William Contreras to Hit a Home Run (+540)

Milwaukee Brewers All-Star William Contreras only has three home runs in the 2026 season, but he’s hitting .288 with a .795 OPS heading into Friday’s game with the Washington Nationals.

Washington has been an easy team to fade in the home run market this season, as it has a 4.90 bullpen ERA and has given up 24 home runs. On Friday, Jake Irvin (who allowed an MLB-high 38 homers last season) gets the start for the Nats.

Irvin has already given up four homers this season, and he’s struggled against Contreras in his career.

The Brewers star is 4-for-14 with a double, two homers, five RBIs and four walks against Irvin. Even though Contreras isn’t a major power hitter, it’s hard to pass him up at this price (+540). Contreras is hitting .294 with all three of his homers against right-handed pitchers in the 2026 season.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+234)

New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is starting to turn things around, hitting .300 with three homers over the last week (six games) heading into Friday’s matchup with the Baltimore Orioles.

Judge is taking on O’s lefty Cade Povich, who has not been able to slow him down in limited at-bats. Judge is 2-for-3 with two homers against Povich, and he has a 1.147 OPS against lefties in 2026.

Povich has struggled when it comes to the long ball in his MLB career, allowing one homer in two appearances in 2026 and 30 in 40 appearances in his career.

Ozzie Albies to Hit a Home Run (+469)

Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies has crushed left-handed pitching in the 2026 season, hitting .373 with three homers and a 1.024 OPs.

Now, he takes on Colorado Rockies lefty Jose Quintana, who has given up four home runs in four starts in 2026.

Albies has bounced back after a rough 2025 season, hitting ,.435 with a pair of homers over the last week and .323 with seven homers overall.

He’s also fared extremely well against Quintana in his career, going 9-for-19 (.474 batting average) with two doubles, three homers and four runs batted in. Albies has a 1.553 OPS against Quintana, so it’s pretty shocking that he’s nearly 5/1 to leave the yard on Friday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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