Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Jorge Polanco, Tyler O’Neill)

Who doesn’t love a home run prop bet on a day filled with afternoon baseball?

On Sunday, there are two sluggers that have amazing matchups against pitchers that they have dominated in their MLB careers.

So, why not bet on them to go deep?

After all, every day at SI Betting we share our favorite home run bets, and while they’re tough to predict, looking at historical matchups is one way to get an edge in this market.

Here’s where to bet on Sunday, May 11.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, May 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+350)
Tyler O’Neill to Hit a Home Run (+240)

Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Seattle Mariners infielder Jorge Polanco is off to a great start in 2025, hitting nine homers while batting a smooth .327.

He has an unreal matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who are starting righty Jose Urena. This season, Urena has made two appearances – one with the Jays and one with the New York Mets – allowing three home runs. He’s posted a 8.59 ERA over those outings, allowing 11 hits in 7.1 innings of work.

In his career, Polanco has dominated against Urena, going 7-for-10 with one double and a pair of walks. While he has yet to take the righty deep, there is no doubt that he sees the ball well against him.

Given the power surge Polanco has had to start this season, he’s worth a look at these odds on Sunday afternoon.

Tyler O’Neill to Hit a Home Run (+240)

Speaking of great matchups, Baltimore Orioles slugger Tyler O’Neill has one on Sunday afternoon against the Los Angeles Angels.

Not only do the Angels have one of the worst bullpens in MLB (6.88 ERA, good for 29th in the league), but O’Neill has fared very well against their starter, Tyler Anderson.

In five career at bats against Anderson, O’Neill is 3-for-5 with two homers and three runs batted in. He’s also hit left-handed pitching better in his career, batting .261 against southpaws compared to .240 against righties.

If O’Neill can’t get to Anderson, he’ll have a pretty solid shot against an Angels bullpen that has given up an MLB-high 26 homers in 2025.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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