Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Clayton Kershaw Undervalued, How to Bet Luis Severino)

The Olympics have taken center stage in the sports world the past week, but with the MLB trade deadline behind us, the push for the playoffs is on over the next two months.

While some players get to their new teams, we have a bunch of matinee matchups to bet on July 31.

I’m focusing on three starting pitchers on Wednesday, including veteran Clayton Kershaw, who is making his second start of the 2024 season after missing a lot of time due to injury.

Let’s kick off this afternoon with some prop wins!

Best MLB Prop Bets Today for Wednesday, July 31

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Logan Webb UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-175)
Luis Severino OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-125)
Clayton Kershaw OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Logan Webb UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-175)

San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb has struggled over his last three starts, allowing seven, four and four earned runs to push his ERA to 3.72 on the season.

Despite that, I’m going to buy low on him against the Oakland A’s, who are just 17th in OPS and 20th in runs scored in 2024.

Webb has 13 starts this season where he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs, but he’ll need to limit the baserunners on Wednesday to clear this prop. It’s worth noting that Webb has a much better ERA at home (3.00) than on the road (4.30) this season.

Luis Severino OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-125)

This is one of my favorite under the radar plays on Wednesday afternoon.

Luis Severino has pitched well for the New York Mets, leading them to seven wins over his last nine starts, but he’s walked multiple hitters in four straight outings. Not only that, but Severino has allowed multiple walks in 13 of his 20 starts.

The Twins only average three walks per game this season, but Sevy has been a walk machine, allowing 42 in 120.2 innings.

I think this is a terrific value on Wednesday.

Clayton Kershaw OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw made his season debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 25, pitching four innings of two-run ball in a win over the Giants.

Now, Kershaw gets a crack at another division rival – the San Diego Padres – on Wednesday night.

Kershaw had six strikeouts in his season debut, but can he repeat a similar effort against a San Diego team that ranks No. 2 in the league in K’s per game – averaging just 6.76 – this season?

I don’t know if Kershaw reaches six punchouts, but I do like the OVER on his 3.5 on Wednesday. Kershaw threw 72 pitches in his season debut, so it’s likely that he gets through four to five innings if given the same leash tonight.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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