Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Dustin May, Yankees Starter, Nick Pivetta)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Tuesday night, including a pick for Dodgers starter Dustin May.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Dustin May is a solid prop target on Tuesday. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Looking to bet on some props for the MLB action on Tuesday night?

A full 15-game slate gives us plenty of options to bet when it comes to player props, but I’m eyeing a trio of pitchers for Tuesday’s picks.

Pitcher props are a little easier to predict than hitter props since starters are only going once every five days or so and they don’t have as much game-to-game variance – especially since a lot of hitter props require multi-hit or multi-base games to cash a plus money prop.

I’m not betting any plus-money action on Tuesday, but there are a couple of pitchers that I think are worth betting on tonight. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday, April 22

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Nick Pivetta UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
• Dustin May UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
• Will Warren UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-170)

Nick Pivetta UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)

San Diego Padres starter Nick Pivetta had a 10-strikeout game in his third start of the 2025 season, but he has fallen below this number in three of his four starts despite pitching at least six innings in three outings overall.

Pivetta has some pretty solid advanced numbers – 70th percentile in whiff percentage and 76th percentile in strikeout percentage – but this number seems a little too high for him considering his season-long profile.

On top of that, the Tigers are averaging just over nine K’s per game, so bettors would be asking Pivetta to come pretty close to that number on Tuesday even though he’s likely going to record somewhere around 18 total outs. 

Dustin May UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)

Los Angeles Dodgers starter Dustin May has been lights out in 2025, posting a 1.06 ERA in three starts, allowing just seven hits across 17 innings of work.

Now, May has a tough matchup against a Chicago Cubs offense that is in the top 10 in MLB in batting average this season. Yet, I’m backing the UNDER on his hits prop.

May has given up three or fewer hits in every start this season, and the Dodgers have been careful about his pitch count, holding him to 86 pitches or fewer in every start since he’s coming off multiple arm injuries. 

That could lead to May getting pulled a little earlier than he has in previous starts, and it should help him hit the UNDER on this line.

This season, May ranks in the 87th percentile in expected ERA, 82nd percentile in expected batting average against and 96th percentile in pitching run value. 

Will Warren UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-170)

New York Yankees starter Will Warren has made four starts this season, and he’s yet to work into the sixth inning in any of them.

In fact, Warren has pitched just 15.2 innings all season, getting pulled in the second inning in his last outing. So, it’s hard to trust him to go OVER this prop against a Cleveland team that put up six runs on the Yanks in Monday’s win.

Warren has a 5.17 ERA this season, and he was not great in 2024, posting a 10.32 ERA in six appearances. I expect New York to continue to have a quick hook with the youngster in 2025, especially since he’s struggled with his command, walking nine batters in four starts.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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