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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Nick Pivetta and Bryce Harper)
It’s a small MLB slate today, but there are still plenty of ways to get in on the action! Here are two player props I am taking in plus-money today.
For the Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies game, there are also some player props I like that are not in plus money to consider. Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castelanos are all in a good spot tonight vs. lefty Mitchell Parker. Schwarber’s over 0.5 bases prop at -165 is too juicy for my style, but I wanted to mention it here in case you are considering a parlay.
Let’s get to it.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today for Thursday, Aug. 15
Nick Pivetta over 5.5 K (+100) at BetMGM
Pivetta is striking batters out at a rate over more than 11 per nine innings this season. His ERA has suffered since the All Star Break, but his splits are favorable for this game.
Since the break, Pivetta’s K numbers are even higher -- 13.05 per nine innings. He also has been more dominant when away vs. left-handed pitching this season, and the Orioles are a mostly lefty lineup.
Pivetta’s road ERA is just 3.76 this season, and he has exceeded this prop in five of his last six starts. The Red So righty missed his last turn through the rotation for extra rest, and he should be able to go deep enough into this game to cash this for us vs. a Baltimore team with a 24.4% K-rate (ninth-highest) in August.
Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases (+125) at DraftKings
There are a lot of Phillies I like tonight, including Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bohm and Nick Castellanos, but we are going to take a bigger swing for a better payout with Harper.
Harper has been cold since the break, but this is a good spot for him to get back on track. Lefty Mitchell Parker starts for the Nationals tonight, and he is allowing an exit velocity in the bottom 25% of the league and has an xERA in the bottom 30%. He’s also struggled when away this season.
Harper is hitting .301 with 21 extra-base hits vs. southpaws this season. 12 of those extra-base hits have come when facing a lefty at home.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Jennifer Piacenti is a fantasy sports and betting analyst for Sports Illustrated. She serves as a host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio and has her own podcast, “Waiver Wired,” on the Extra Points podcast network. Piacenti is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye” and is a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts. She is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and is a 2020 Scott Fish Bowl finalist.
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