Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Chet Holmgren, James Harden, Austin Reaves)

Some low-scoring playoff games on Tuesday night made it a rough night for OVER bettors in the prop market, but the playoffs are all about making adjustments – both on the floor and with our bets.

So, I’m getting back on the horse for Thursday’s Game 2s where the Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons are looking to take 2-0 series leads. The Cleveland Cavaliers (3.5-point underdogs) and Los Angeles Lakers (15.5-point underdogs) both lost by double digits in Tuesday’s Game 1s.

There are several ways to attack the prop market on Thursday, but I’m actually fading a pair of lead guards that didn’t exactly light it up on Tuesday night.

Plus, there is a Thunder player that may be undervalued after putting together multiple strong games against the Lakers in the regular season.

Here’s a breakdown of all three player props for Thursday’s Game 2 action.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, May 7

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Austin Reaves UNDER 18.5 Points (-117)

Austin Reaves had a nightmare showing in Game 1 of this series, scoring eight points on 3-of-16 shooting, and he’s following a troubling trend of poor shooting in the playoffs after making just over 41 percent of his attempts in last year’s first-round loss to Minnesota.

Reaves is just 14-of-46 from the field (30.4 percent) in this year’s playoffs, making him a really tough player to trust in Game 2 against this elite OKC defense that features Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and others.

I think the UNDER is the play for Reaves once again, even though he’s gotten a ton of shots with Luka Doncic out of the lineup. During the regular season, Reaves did not play well against the Thunder, scoring 13 points on 4-of-12 shooting in their first meeting, 16 points on 6-of-14 shooting in their second meeting and 15 points on 5-of-9 shooting in the game when he hurt his oblique.

After a dismal shooting display in Game 1, this line is too high for my liking in Game 2.

Chet Holmgren to Record a Double-Double (+142)

Chet Holmgren had multiple double-doubles against the Lakers in the regular season, and he continued to build on that with 24 points and 12 boards in Game 1.

I think he’s worth a look to have at least 10 and 10 in Game 2, especially since oddsmakers are setting this prop at +142. Holmgren is averaging 18.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game this postseason, picking up double-doubles in back-to-back games.

The Lakers are just eighth amongst playoff teams in rebound percentage, and Holmgren is averaging nearly 16 rebound chances per game in the playoffs. He should build on a strong Game 1 in Game 2, and he may play a few more minutes if L.A. is able to hang around.

James Harden UNDER 19.5 Points (-118)

James Harden opened his series with the Pistons by scoring 22 points on 6-of-15 shooting (9-for-9 from the free-throw line), and I’m not buying him to keep that up in Game 2.

The Pistons have a defensive rating of 102.5 in this postseason, and Harden had more turnovers (seven) than made shots in (six) in Game 1. In fact, the Cavs star has made just 49 shots from the field while turning the ball over 43 times in the playoffs this season.

Harden has 20 or more points in four of his eight playoff games, but he’s averaging just 13.8 shots per game and shooting 34.5 percent from 3. So, he’s been pretty dependent on getting to the line for his points.

In fact, he’s attempted nine or more free throws in two of the games where he cleared this line. I’ll fade Harden in Game 2, as his shooting has left a lot to be desired so far this postseason.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google