Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Donovan Mitchell, Julius Randle, Kevin Durant)

Sunday’s NBA action kicks off at 1 p.m. EST with the Denver Nuggets playing the Oklahoma City Thunder, and there are eight games in total to consider betting on.

I have several player props that I’m eyeing, including one for the Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns matchup on Sunday afternoon. Plus, Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell may be overvalued in one market on Sunday.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the best props for March 9.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 9

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Donovan Mitchell UNDER 5.5 Assists (-140)
Kevin Durant OVER 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)
Stephon Castle OVER 15.5 Points (-125)
Julius Randle OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)

Donovan Mitchell UNDER 5.5 Assists (-140)

This season, Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell is averaging 4.7 assists per game, and he has a tough matchup against a Milwaukee Bucks team that is 10th in the NBA in opponent assists per game.

Mitchell has failed to pick up six or more dimes in nine of his last 11 games, averaging 4.7 assists per game over that stretch. In addition to that, Mitchell is averaging just 8.7 potential assists per game this season, so his ceiling to clear this prop isn’t nearly as high as I’d like when he’s set at this lofty number.

Kevin Durant OVER 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)

Earlier today, I shared my favorite prop for the Phoenix Suns-Dallas Mavericks game in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points:

Kevin Durant has been rolling for the Phoenix Suns, putting up 36, 41 and 38 points and rebounds over his last three games. He’s cleared 31.5 points and rebounds in eight of his last 11 matchups since returning from a three-game absence.

Over that 11-game stretch, KD is averaging 26.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game while playing over 40 minutes a night. The Suns desperately need Sunday’s game against Dallas to make some ground up for the No. 10 seed, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Durant play some major minutes.

On top of that, the Mavs are just 20th in defensive rating and 29th in rebounding percentage over their last 10 games. With so many key players out for Dallas, KD should be in line for a huge game on Sunday.

Stephon Castle OVER 15.5 Points (-125)

San Antonio Spurs rookie guard Stephon Castle is showing that he can be a star in this league this month.

Over his last five games, Castle is averaging 24.0 points on 18.2 shots per game, shooting a solid 51.6 percent from the field and 30.3 percent from beyond the arc. He’s cleared this line in each of those games, despite coming off the bench in all of them.

The Spurs are likely out of the play-in chase in the West, so it makes sense for them to keep running offense through Castle to allow him to develop as a scorer in his first NBA season.

Julius Randle OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)

While the potential return of center Rudy Gobert could limit Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle in the rebounding department, he’s been stuffing the stat sheet since returning from injury.

Over his last four games, Randle has nine, 13, 19, and 19 rebounds and assists, averaging 8.5 boards and 6.5 dimes per game. Overall, the two-time All-NBA selection is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game this season, putting him right in the mix for this prop.

Since the Spurs are dead last in the NBA in rebounding percentage over their last 10 games, I could see Randle having another big game on the glass tonight. Adding the assists into the mix gives bettors a little cushion in case Gobert returns and eats into that rebounding workload.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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