Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Joel Embiid, Devin Vassell, Kawhi Leonard)

Looking for some prop bets for the loaded NBA slate on Thursday night?

There are 10 games on Feb. 26, but I’ve narrowed things down to four props, including picks for stars like Joel Embiid (probable tonight) and Kawhi Leonard (questionable tonight) in some major matchups for playoff seeding.

Plus, there is a San Antonio Spurs wing that has come on strong since the All-Star break and may be undervalued on the second night of a back-to-back against the Brooklyn Nets.

Betting on props is a great way to get involved in the action in the NBA, and with a bunch of larger spreads on Thursday, this is a way to avoid picking a side.

Let’s take a look at the odds and my breakdown for each of these props on Feb. 26.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Feb. 26

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Devin Vassell OVER 12.5 Points (-116)

Spurs wing Devin Vassell has turned in back-to-back 20-point games, scoring 28 (on 14 shots) in a win over the Detroit Pistons and 21 (on 13 shots) in a win over the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.

Now, he takes on a Brooklyn team that ranks 26th in the NBA in defensive rating and has really struggled defending the 3-ball, allowing opponents to shoot 37.4 percent from deep (29th in the NBA).

That sets up well for Vassell, who is averaging 14.4 points per game this season despite playing a smaller offensive role than previous seasons. The Spurs wing seems to have shaken some rust off after missing time with an injury in January, and he’s still attempting 11.8 shots per game.

He has a solid floor against one of the worst teams in the NBA on Thursday night.

Joel Embiid OVER 27.5 Points (-119)

Thursday's game against the Miami Heat should be a lot closer than Philadelphia's win over the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday, which could lead to an even bigger role for Joel Embiid after he missed five games in a row earlier this month.

Over his last 18 games (since Jan. 1), Embiid is averaging 19.0 shots per game, and he's pushing 30 points per game. So, it's reasonable to think that he could score 28 or more points against a Miami team that ranks 22nd in the league in opponent points in the paint per game this season.

Embiid has 28 or more points in 11 of his last 18 games, and the Heat have been a team that players can score on, even though they rank No. 4 in defensive rating. Miami is No. 1 in the NBA in pace, which creates extra possessions for both sides. As a result, the Heat are 20th in opponent points per game in the 2025-26 campaign.

After an extremely efficient showing in his return on Tuesday (11-of-17 from the field), Embiid is a great bet to continue his dominant scoring stretch on Thursday.

Kawhi Leonard OVER 29.5 Points (-108)

Earlier this month, Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard took 30 shots and scored 41 points in a blowout win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, and he's been on a scoring rampage since the trade deadline.

Leonard is averaging 28.0 points per game in the 2025-26 season, and he's attempting the second-most shots per game of his career (19.8). Since Feb. 1, he's averaging 29.3 points per game over a 10-game stretch, scoring 30 or more points in four games, including his last two matchups.

The Timberwolves are a top-10 defensive team this season, but they didn't have an answer for Kawhi back on Feb. 8. Plus, with Darius Garland still out and John Collins questionable, the Clippers have to rely on Leonard to lead the way scoring the ball.

Moussa Diabate OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-116)

I absolutely love Thursday’s matchup for Charlotte Hornets big man Moussa Diabate, as he takes on the Indiana Pacers.

Indy is down Ivica Zubac and likely down Pascal Siakam (doubtful) in this game, and it’s already one of the worst rebounding teams in the league.

The Pacers rank 29th in rebound percentage and 27th in opponent rebounds per game, while Diabate has been a beast on the boards for Charlotte. The 2022 second-round pick is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game overall, but that number jumps to 9.8 per game when he’s in the starting lineup.

Diabate already has a 12-rebound game against Indiana this season, and he had two games with over 10 boards this month before he was suspended for four games. I think he dominates the glass against a short-handed Indy squad on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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