Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for SGA, Brandon Miller, Keyonte George)

An exciting six-game NBA slate is set for Wednesday, March 4, as there are a few playoff teams (Oklahoma City, New York, Boston, Philadelphia and potentially others) that are taking the floor:

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks
Charlotte Hornets vs. Boston Celtics
Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Clippers

OKC, New York, Charlotte and Philly are all playing the second night of a back-to-back, which could open up some opportunities in the player prop market.

I’ve narrowed things down to my three favorite plays for Wednesday’s action, including a pick for Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who rested on the front end of the back-to-back on Tuesday.

In addition to SGA, there are two rising stars that I think could have big games scoring the ball tonight.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds and my breakdown for each of these three props on March 4.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 4

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 6.5 Assists (-131)

This season, SGA is averaging 6.4 assists on 12.7 potential assists per game, but I’m fading him on the road against this Knicks team.

New York ranks third in the NBA in opponent assists per game, allowing just 24.6 per night this season. In addition to that, the Knicks have been on fire defensively in recent weeks, posting the third-best defensive rating over their last 15 games and the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 10 games.

That could make things tough on SGA, especially when it comes to getting his teammates involved. The star guard had nine dimes on Feb. 27 in his first game back against the Denver Nuggets, but he was held to five assists in a win over Dallas on Sunday.

Overall, SGA has seven or more dimes in just 22 of his 51 games. He’s going to put up some big numbers scoring the ball just about every night, but I’ll fade him just a bit as a passer on Wednesday.

Brandon Miller 3+ 3-Pointers Made (-180)

Charlotte Hornets wing Brandon Miller is having a great 2025-26 season, averaging 20.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from 3-point range.

Miller has been on fire from 3 as of late, knocking down 37.9 percent of his 3s since Feb. 1 while attempting nearly 10 shots from beyond the arc per game. That gives Miller a really solid floor on Wednesday against a Boston Celtics team that has struggled to defend the 3 this season.

Boston has given up the seventh-most 3s per game in the league this season, and Miller’s increased usage from beyond the arc has helped him hit three or more shots from deep in eight of his last 12 games.

The former No. 2 overall pick has seven games during that stretch with at least 10 attempts from deep, and I expect him to get plenty of looks on Wednesday with the Hornets set as underdogs in Boston.

In addition to allowing the seventh-most 3-point makes in the league, Boston also allows the seventh-most attempts from deep this season.

Keyonte George OVER 20.5 Points (-120)

Fresh off of a 36-point game against the Denver Nuggets on Monday, Keyonte George is looking to take advantage of a Philadelphia 76ers team that was blown out by 40 on Tuesday night.

The 76ers are just 17th in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and they allow over 116 points per game (19th in the NBA).

George is averaging 23.9 points per game this season, and he seems to be off of a minutes restriction after playing just over 30 minutes on Monday. The star guard took 22 shots in that game, and he should see a ton of looks for the Jazz with Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and others out in this game.

This prop is set well below George’s season average, and he has 21 or more points in 31 of his 50 appearances in the 2025-26 campaign. I’ll continue to back him at this discounted number with the Jazz short-handed.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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