Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for SGA, Giannis, Ja Morant, Jamal Murray and More)

Looking for some prop picks for a loaded day of NBA action?

There are five star players that I’m targeting Sunday for the eight-game slate, including a pick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s matchup with the Phoenix Suns.

Shai isn’t the only star guard in action on Sunday, and I have some picks for two more, including Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray and Memphis Grizzlies star Ja Morant.

Murray has taken on an expanded role with Nikola Jokic (knee) out of the lineup while Morant may be a little overvalued as a scorer against the Los Angeles Lakers.

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each of these props – and their latest odds – on Jan. 4.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 4

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jamal Murray OVER 26.5 Points (-112)

With Jokic out of the lineup, a ton of the scoring burden has fallen on Murray in this Denver offense.

The star guard put up 34 points on 28 shots in his last game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he should have a massive workload against the Brooklyn Nets.

Murray is averaging 25.4 points per game for the 2025-26 season, so we’re not asking him to go much above his season average even though his usage has been up since Jokic went down against the Miami Heat in late December.

Brooklyn, despite recent improvement on the defensive end, is still just 21st in the league in defensive rating this season.

Trey Murphy III OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-123)

New Orleans Pelicans wing Trey Murphy III is shooting 37.9 percent from 3-point range on over seven attempts per game this season, and he could see a few more touches against the Miami Heat with Herb Jones and Saddiq Bey out of the lineup.

Miami ranks just 19th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game, and it’s No. 1 in the league in pace. The Heat are going to make this an up-and-down game, which should give the Pelicans and Murphy a few more possessions on offense.

Murphy is averaging less than three made 3-pointers per game, but he’s cleared this prop in each of his last three games and 15 of his 33 appearances this season overall.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-157)

In two meetings with the Phoenix Suns this season, Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has made two or more 3-pointers in both of them, shooting a combined 6-for-9 from deep.

The reigning league MVP is shooting the 3-ball at a high level this season, knocking down 42.5 percent of his shots on just 4.9 attempts per game. While the attempts are a cause for concern in this prop, SGA has multiple 3-pointers in 22 of his 34 games in the 2025-26 campaign.

The star guard is going to have the ball in his hands a ton in this matchup, and he’s had no issues clearing this prop against the Suns – even though they’re a top-10 defense in opponent 3-point percentage.

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 Points (-112)

Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo has a dream matchup on Sunday, as he takes on the Sacramento Kings, who are 28th in the league in defensive rating this season.

Giannis is averaging 29.0 points per game while shooting 63.7 percent from the field, and he’s cleared 29.5 points in back-to-back games as he works his way back from a calf strain.

Despite playing limited minutes over his last four games, Giannis has 29, 24, 33 and 30 points, taking at least 15 shots in every game.

He nearly played 30 minutes in his last contest, and he should see an expanded role as he works himself back from this injury. The Kings are allowing over 122 points per game this season, and Giannis has 26 points on just 13 shots in his first meeting against them this season.

Ja Morant UNDER 22.5 Points (-112)

I’m fading Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant on Sunday, even though the Los Angeles Lakers are 27th in defensive rating over their last 10 games.

Morant was limited to just 16 points on 18 shots in a loss to the Lakers on Jan. 2, and he only has four games (out of 18) this season where he’s scored 23 or more points.

Morant’s shooting has been abysmal – 40.1 percent from the field, 20.8 percent from 3 – and he’s struggled to reach this line even in games where he’s had a ton of shot volume.

The Lakers should be able to hold Morant in check once again on Sunday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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