Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Commanders vs. Dolphins in NFL Madrid Game in Week 11

Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins are favored in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season as they take on the 3-7 Washington Commanders in Madrid.

This is the final international game of the 2025 NFL season, and oddsmakers have given the Dolphins the edge in the latest odds, as they are fresh off of a win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10.

Washington, on the other hand, has lost five games in a row and Jayden Daniels (elbow) is banged up. The Commanders look nothing like the team that made the NFC title game last season, and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Could that help the fans and Madrid see a high-scoring game on Sunday morning?

The SI Betting team has a pick for the total this week, as I’ve curated some of our top picks and prediction for this standalone matchup in Week 11.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Commanders vs. Dolphins

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Washington Commanders-Miami Dolphins OVER 47.5 (-112) – Iain MacMillan
Jaylen Waddle OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey
Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+175) – Peter Dewey
De’Von Achane OVER 16.5 Rush Attempts (+100) – Peter Dewey

Washington Commanders-Miami Dolphins OVER 47.5 (-112) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s betting the OVER between these two subpar defenses:

I'll bet the OVER in the final European game of the season. I'm not looking too far into the Dolphins' strong defensive performance against the Bills last week. At the end of the day, these have been two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Dolphins are 27th and the Commanders are 30th in opponent EPA per play. They're also both in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA and opponent success rate.

Even with Jayden Daniels out of the lineup for the Commanders, I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball enough in this game to cash the OVER.

Jaylen Waddle OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

This is a prime matchup for Jaylen Waddle against a Washington defense that has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season:

Over the last six weeks, Jaylen Waddle has 82 or more receiving yards in five of his six games, including a 110-yard showing in Week 5. He’s been the clear No. 1 target for Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill (knee) done for the season.

Now, Waddle faces a Washington team that ranks 31st in EPA/Pass and has allowed 2,602 passing yards in 10 games, by far the most in the NFL.

Waddle has at least six targets in all but two of his games this season, and the Dolphins receiver has blown past this prop in the majority of his game since Hill was ruled out for the season.

He’s my favorite prop target for Sunday’s matchup.

Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+175) – Peter Dewey

There aren't many reliable options in this Washington offense, but Deebo Samuel has scored five times in 2025:

Deebo Samuel has scored five times this season, and he’s taken on a major role in this offense with Terry McLaurin (quad) missing the majority of Washington’s games.

Samuel found the end zone in garbage time against the Lions in Week 10, and he’s now caught a touchdown in two of Marcus Mariota’s starts. Samuel is also a threat on the ground, running for a touchdown in Week 1.

Miami has given up a ton of points this season, and it’s allowed 17 passing scores while ranking 29th in the NFL in EPA/Pass.

De’Von Achane OVER 16.5 Rush Attempts (+100) – Peter Dewey

There is an interesting trend for De’Von Achane and his rushing attempts in games that the Dolphins win this season:

Since there’s a chance Washington gets blown out for the fifth game in a row, I’m going to bet the OVER on De’Von Achane’s rushing attempts in this game.

Achane is one of the most-utilized backs in the league in both the rushing and receiving game, and he’s played 90.6 and 88.7 percent of the team’s snaps over the last two weeks.

The former third-round pick should have a major workload against a Washington defense that is 24th in EPA/Rush and allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season. Achane has at least 17 carries in just three games this season, but he has cleared this line in all of Miami’s wins.

So, if the Dolphins – who are favored – win this game, they’ll likely close things out with Achane on the ground. He’s a solid bet – and this could be a good parlay piece – for a Miami team that is eyeing a fourth win in the 2025 season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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