Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 14

Iain MacMillan | 9 Hours Ago

Bet on the Texans to cover against the Chiefs in the Week 14 of Sunday Night Football. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Tonight's Sunday Night Football game will have a significant impact on the AFC Playoffs. The loser of tonight's game between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs will have a great chance to make the playoffs, while the loser will have a tough hill to climb in the final four weeks if they want to advance to the postseason.

In this week's article, I'm going to give you my top bets and props for this AFC showdown. Let's dive into them.

Texans vs. Chiefs Best Picks and Props

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Texans +3.5 (-108) vs. Chiefs
• Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (+130)
• Jayden Higgins OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Texans +3.5 (-108) vs. Chiefs

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm taking the points with the Texans:

The Kansas City Chiefs aren't the team they were last year. Whether it's fatigue from years of deep playoff runs or simply regression away from the strong variance or "luck" they've had in late-game situations the past few seasons, we need to evaluate them differently in 2025.

Now, they have to take on a red-hot Houston Texans team that boasts the best defense in football. They rank first in opponent EPA, third in opponent success rate, second in defensive DVOA, and fourth in opponent yards per play (4.7). Offensively, the Texans have found their stride lately and are a dangerous unit with C.J. Stroud at quarterback.

The Texans may not win, but I'd be surprised if the Chiefs are able to win by margin.

Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (+130)

The Chiefs have a split backfield between Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, but Hunt still gets the majority of short-yardage and goalline carries. He has already scored eight touchdowns this season, and now he's in a favorable matchup against the Texans. Attacking the elite Houston secondary is a bad idea, so I expect the Chiefs to lean on their running backs, especially in the red zone. I think there's value in this bet at +140.

Jayden Higgins OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Jayden Higgins to go over his receiving yards total is my No. 8 ranked player prop for Week 14:

Slot receivers have had a lot of success against the Chiefs this season. That's great news for Texans WR Jayden Higgins, who, since Week 10, has seen his route share go up 10%, his targets per route have increased from 0.15 to 0.3, his target share has increased 10.5%, and his yards per route have increased from 1.09 to 2.15. Not only has his utilization increased significantly, but he now has an extremely favorable matchup against the Chiefs.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!