Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 13 (Bet Commanders as Home Underdogs on Sunday Night Football)

We're already four games into Week 13 of the NFL season, but we still have 12 games left to watch and bet on, so go ahead and grab a cup of coffee, find a spot on the couch, and lock in your wagers for today's action.

I have something for everyone in this article, including a bet on a favorite, an underdog, and a total. Let's dive into them.

NFL Week 13 Best Bets Today

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Rams -10 (-113) vs. Panthers
Bills vs. Steelers OVER 45.5 (-107)
Commanders +5.5 (-109) vs. Broncos

Rams vs. Panthers Prediction

I'm ready to say the Los Angeles Rams are the best team in the NFL, and there's no other team at their level. They rank first in both offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA, while also ranking fifth in Net Yards per Play, fifth in EPA per play, and first in opponent EPA per play. They can steamroll any team they face, especially a Panthers' team whose metrics have been in the bottom 10 of the league despite their okay record.

I won't hesitate to lay the points with Los Angeles in this game.

Pick: Rams -10 (-113)

Bills vs. Steelers Prediction

The Bills' offense remains one of the few elite units in the NFL, but their defense has cost them already this season, and they'll continue to allow opponents to stay in games they have no business staying in. The Bills are sixth in offensive DVOA but 21st in defensive DVOA. Their defense also can't stop the run, which is bad news against the Steelers' run-first offense.

As bad as their defense is, it's tough to bet against Josh Allen as well. The move to make for Bills games moving forward may just be to bet the OVER and hope the Bills continue to be all offense and no defense.

Pick: OVER 45.5 (-107)

Broncos vs. Commanders Prediction

The Broncos are a completely different team when on the road compared to at home. Their net yards per play drop from +1.2 at home to +0.5 on the road. Their offense keeps them from being able to run away and create separation from their opponents. They're 16th in the league in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. Only the Raiders, Titans, and Browns rank worse in success rate than the Broncos.

That causes me to hesitate to lay the 5.5 points on the Broncos when they hit the road to take on a Commanders team whose offense has still managed to move the ball, even when Jayden Daniels doesn't play. You might be surprised to find out they're 13th in EPA per play and sixth in success rate, behind only the Rams, Colts, 49ers, Chiefs, and Packers. Marcus Mariota is 13th in EPA+CPOE, which is just one spot below Jared Goff this season.

This game may end up being closer than people think.

Pick: Commanders +5.5 (-109)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!