Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 14 (Bet the UNDER in Bengals vs. Bills)

Iain MacMillan | 10 Hours Ago

Bet the UNDER in the Week 14 showdown between the Bengals and Bills. / Kareem Elgazzar-Imagn Images

Week 14 of the NFL season marks the final week of BYEs, meaning we have 12 games for us to watch and bet on today.

If you can't decide which games to bet on, let me help you out. I have a little something for everyone in this article, with a bet on a favorite, a total, and an underdog. Let's dive into them.

Top NFL Picks Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Seahawks -6.5 (-115) vs. Falcons
• Bengals vs. Bills UNDER 53.5 (-115)
• Bears +265 vs. Packers

Seahawks vs. Falcons Prediction

At this point, the Falcons can't wait for the offseason. Nothing can go right for them, losing four games by three or fewer points and a fifth game by six points in overtime. Raheem Morris may have lost the locker room, their young quarterback is out for the year, and their star wide receiver is sidelined with an injury. That leaves Bijan Robinson as their only offensive weapon, but now they have to face a Seahawks defense that ranks first in opponent rush EPA, third in opponent rush success rate, and fourth in opponent yards per carry (3.8).

Meanwhile, there's an argument to be made that the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL. They rank first in overall DVOA, coming in at seventh on offense, first on defense, and second on special teams. The special teams advantage can't be understated, as the Falcons' special teams unit has been one of the worst in the league, ranking 30th in special teams DVOA.

Don't be afraid the lay the points with the Seahawks.

Pick: Seahawks -6.5 (-115)

Bengals vs. Bills Prediction

This game has OVER written all over it. Both defenses in this game have struggled this season, while their offenses, especially the Bengals' offense with Joe Burrow back in the lineup, have been hot. With that being said, I still believe the total in this game is too high, so I'll reluctantly back the UNDER.

The Bills are still seeking a viable option at wide receiver and now their top two offensive tackles are also out of the lineup between Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. If they face a team that focuses on stopping their rush attack, the Bills have struggled to respond by being able to beat them through the air. For the Bengals, despite Burrow's strong performance against the Ravens, Cincinnati still averaged just 4.8 yards per play in that game. Tee Higgins also remains in concussion protocol.

I'll back in the UNDER in this pivotal AFC showdown.

Pick: UNDER 53.5 (-115)

Bears vs. Packers Prediction

It's time to start believing in the Chicago Bears. Despite the metrics showing they aren't nearly as good as their record, they find ways to win games. Whether it's against an inferior or superior opponent, they'll squeak out a win via strong play by their offensive line, winning the turnover battle, and taking advantage of late-game opportunities.

The Packers have been the complete opposite of that this season. Their underlying metrics are elite, but they've let moments and games slip through their grasp more than once. The Packers' defense ranks outside the top 10 in opponent rush success rate, while the Bears are first in offensive rush success rate. That could be the difference-maker, and it's enough for me to back the Bears as my upset pick of the week.

Pick: Bears +265

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