Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 16 (Bet the Patriots as Underdogs on Sunday Night Football)

Iain MacMillan | 1 Hour Ago

Bet on the Patriots as underdogs against the Ravens in the Week 16 edition of Sunday Night Football. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

There are just three weeks left in the season, and if some things break right today, we could see a few more playoff spots locked up and division titles won.

Let's take advantage of betting on a full slate of NFL games while we still can because, before we know it, it's going to be the playoffs. In this article, I'm going to give you three of my favorite bets for today's slate of games. Let's dive into them.

Best NFL Bets Today for NFL Week 16

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Chargers vs. Cowboys UNDER 49.5 (-108)
• Lions -7 (-110) vs. Steelers
• Patriots +3 (-113) vs. Ravens

Chargers vs. Cowboys UNDER 49.5 (-108)

The Chargers are on a win streak, but it's not because of their offense. In fact, their defense has turned into an elite unit. They now rank ninth in defensive DVOA, fourth in opponent EPA per play, and sixth in opponent success rate, but more importantly, they rank inside the top five of every pass defense metric, which is how you shut down the Cowboys' offense.

The Chargers offense is 19th in points per game at 22.5, while also scoring just 16.0 points per game. Cowboys aside, a game involving an elite defense and an offense that has struggled shouldn't have a game with a total of almost in the 50s. I'll take the UNDER in this one and hope the Cowboys' defense doesn't melt in front of our eyes.

Lions -7 (-110) vs. Steelers

It's do-or-die time for the Lions, and while they're on the outside looking in for the playoffs heading into this week, I still have a lot of faith in this Detroit squad. The Lions are third in the NFL in overall DVOA, fifth in net yards per play, and seventh in EPA per play. They've stumbled when facing elite teams this season, but they can overwhelm teams that aren't on their level, and I think the Steelers are one of those teams.

Not that the Steelers are a bad team, but they're not great in any areas either, largely average across the board. Aaron Rodgers doesn't have the arm or the weapons to take advantage of the Lions' biggest weakness, which is their banged-up secondary.

Patriots +3 (-113) vs. Ravens

The Patriots' defense has some major issues that were exposed against the Bills this past weekend. With that being said, they're still an elite offense, and Drake Maye has been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL this season. I'm a bit surprised they're set as 2.5-point underdogs against a Ravens team that continues to underwhelm. Sure, they beat up on a spiraling Bengals team last week, but the Patriots are several steps above Cincinnati in class.

The Ravens are 14th in overall DVOA, 19th in EPA per play, and 14th in opponent EPA per play. Let's stop treating the Ravens like they're an elite team that has just suffered from some bad luck this season. They're an above-average team at best, and the Patriots will be able to hang with them.

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