Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Bills vs. Jaguars on Sunday on Wild Card Weekend)

Iain MacMillan | 8 Hours Ago

Bet the OVER on Travis Etienne's rushing yards total against the Bills in the Wild Card Round. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars will kick off Sunday's NFL action. The Jaguars enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Bills have a chance to finally get to the Super Bowl with Josh Allen. The path seems to be as clear as ever, with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson failing to make the postseason.

Let's dive into three of my favorite bets for this matinee matchup.

Bills vs. Jaguars Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Jaguars +1.5 (-120) vs. Bills
• Bills/Jaguars OVER 51.5 (-115)
• Travis Etienne OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards

Jaguars +1.5 (-120) vs. Bills

The reason why I'm betting on the Jaguars is this game is because of the Bills' defense, which is why I'm going to bet the OVER when it comes to the total. The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL, ranking in the bottom 10 in almost every category.

I think you're going to be hard-pressed to see many people betting against Josh Allen in the playoffs this weekend, but I'm going to be one of the few people brave enough to do it. This isn't anything against Allen and the Bills' offense, but their defense leaves a ton to be desired, and I have a lot of concerns about their ability to stop any playoff-level offense.

The Bills simply can't stop the run. They rank 25th in opponent rush success rate, 31st in opponent rush EPA, and 30th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.1 yards per rush. Now, they have to take on the hottest team in football.

The Jaguars outrank the Bills in DVOA, coming in at sixth compared to the Bills at eighth, and they've not only been solid on both sides of the football, but they also have a top-five ranked special teams unit, which could make all the difference in a game that's set as a coin flip.

I'll take the Jaguars to take out the Bills and serve them yet another heartbreaking playoff loss.

Bills/Jaguars OVER 51.5 (-115)

The reason why I'm betting on the Jaguars is this game is because of the Bills' defense, which is why I'm going to bet the OVER when it comes to the total. The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL, ranking the bottom 10 in almost every category.

The Jaguars and Bills have been two of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL this season, ranking fourth and sixth in points per game at 28.3 and 27.9, respectively. All signs point to this being a high-scoring affair.

Travis Etienne OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards

In the Wild Card edition of the Player Prop Countdown, I ranked Travis Etienne to go over his rushing yards total as my favorite prop for the Wild Card Round:

The Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They rank 31st in the league in opponent rush EPA, and they have allowed 5.1 yards per carry. The Jaguars would be smart to lean on their running game to attack Buffalo, where it's weak, which means handing the ball off to Travis Etienne early and often. He has averaged 65.1 rushing yards per game this season, so as long as he hits his average, this bet will cash.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!