Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Chargers vs. Texans in NFL Wild Card Round)

The wild card round in the NFL Playoffs kicks off on Saturday afternoon with Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers hitting the road to play the AFC South champion Houston Texans.

Houston won the AFC South division for the second straight year, but it isn’t considered a threat to win the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers have the Texans and Steelers tied with the longest odds to win the Super Bowl this season (+9000).

As a result, the Chargers find themselves as road favorites in this matchup, a spot that they’re 5-1 against the spread in this season.

In their first season under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers are looking to win their first playoff game with Herbert at quarterback. Los Angeles infamously blew a massive lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the playoffs in the 2022 season.

Houston is down multiple key weapons in Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, which could make this an uphill battle on Saturday.

The SI Betting team has come together to share plenty of bets in this game, but I’m putting my favorites all in one spot for bettors to easily access.

Let’s break down the picks for Chargers vs. Texans!

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Chargers vs. Texans

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-105) vs. Houston Texans – Peter Dewey
Nico Collins Anytime TD (+135) – Iain MacMillan
Ladd McConkey OVER 5.5 Receptions (-135) – Peter Dewey
CJ Stroud UNDER 231.5 Passing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-105) vs. Houston Texans – Peter Dewey

My favorite bet of NFL Wild Card Weekend happens to be on the Chargers to cover the spread in this matchup.

The Texans come into the playoffs off a rough finish to the 2024 regular season and without Dell and Diggs due to season-ending injuries.

Now, Houston is set as a home underdog against the Chargers in the wild-card round. Los Angeles has been elite when favored on the road, going 5-1 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +15.3 points in those games.

Meanwhile, Houston went just 1-5 against teams that are above .500 this season, posting a 3-3 against the spread record as an underdog.

With this spread staying steady at the key number of 3, I love backing a Chargers team that is getting healthy with the return of J.K. Dobbins late in the regular season. Los Angeles is the No. 5 defense and the No. 13 offense in terms of EPA/Play this season. Houston does have the No. 6 defense, but it clocks in at just 24th in EPA/Play on offense.

With all the weapons missing for Houston, I don’t see it competing with a Chargers team that closed the season on a three-game winning streak, improving to 6-3 straight up on the road in the process.

Nico Collins Anytime TD (+135) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared some of his favorite bets for this game in the anytime touchdown scorer market, including a play for Texans wideout Nico Collins:

I'm surprised Nico Collins is at plus-money to score a touchdown given he's the only viable star at wide receiver this season.

He already has seven touchdowns in 12 games on the season and if the Texans find themselves in a negative game script against the favored Chargers, they could turn to the air and throw the ball often in the second half, further improving Collins' chances of scoring.

Ladd McConkey OVER 5.5 Receptions (-135) – Peter Dewey

Chargers rookie receiver Ladd McConkey was awesome in the regular season, catching 82 of his 112 targets for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games.

The rookie came on late in the season, catching six or more passes from Herbert in five of his final seven games. Over that seven-game stretch, McConkey was targeted at least six times in every game, racking up 58 targets in total – good for an average of over eight per game.

He should be heavily involved in the game plan on Saturday.

CJ Stroud UNDER 231.5 Passing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

It’s been a rough sophomore season for CJ Stroud, as he threw for just 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 picks in 17 games.

Now, without two of his top weapons, I think Stroud is a fade candidate in this game.

The Chargers rank No. 4 in the NFL in EPA/Pass on defense this season, and they allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards in the league. That’s an impressive stat considering they play in a division that features Patrick Mahomes.

Stroud has failed to clear 231.5 passing yards in seven games already this season. Unless Houston falls behind big early and is forced to throw the ball a ton, I’m not sure Stroud gets past this number in a regular game script.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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