Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Commanders vs. Buccaneers in NFL Wild Card Round)

Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will make his NFL Playoff debut on Sunday night against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs clinched the NFC South title with a win in the final week of the regular season, and they'll look to win a playoff game for the second straight season on Sunday.

Despite the fact that the Bucs are at home (as a division winner), Washington actually had a better record during the regular season.

These teams played in Week 1 with Tampa Bay dropping an impressive 37 points on the Commanders, but with Chris Godwin out, Tampa Bay isn’t as loaded offensively heading into this matchup.

Meanwhile, Washington has one of the more dynamic offenses in the NFL and closed the regular season strong to hold off Green Bay for the No. 6 seed.

So, how should we bet on this matchup?

The SI Betting team has you covered with several of our top picks and predictions for this NFC playoff matchup.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-115) vs. Washington Commanders – Iain MacMillan
Jalen McMillan Anytime TD (+160) – Peter Dewey
Bucky Irving OVER 87.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – Peter Dewey
Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 Receptions (-155) – Peter Dewey

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-115) vs. Washington Commanders – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite pick for this game in his Road to Super Bowl 59 column – where he picks every game for the playoffs:

Despite delivering some electric moments this NFL season, the underlying numbers on the Commanders don't look promising. They enter the playoffs ranking 13th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.3, while ranking just 15th in EPA per play and 19th opponent EPA per play since Week 10.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have quietly become one of the elite teams in the league. They're now fifth in Net Yards per Play (+0.7), along with fourth in EPA per play and seventh in opponent EPA per play since Week 10.

Most importantly, the Buccaneers should find plenty of success running the football. Since committing to Bucky Irving as their main rusher, their running game has thrived. Now they get to face a Commanders defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry, the fifth most in the NFL.

Finally, the Commanders have struggled on the road this season, ranking 27th in road Net Yards per Play at -0.6. A lot of things are pointing in the Bucs' favor on Sunday night.

Jalen McMillan Anytime TD (+160) – Peter Dewey

We’re going to get another edition for the Mike Evans-Marshon Lattimore rivalry on Sunday, as the Washington Commanders take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild card round.

Lattimore may make it tougher for Baker Mayfield to get his top target the ball, so I’m aiming to find another option in the vaunted Buccaneers passing game.

Enter rookie receiver Jalen McMillan.

Over the final five weeks of the regular season, McMillan reeled in 24 of his 31 targets from Mayfield for 316 yards and seven touchdowns, finding the end zone at least once in every one of those games.

Overall, McMillan has eight scores in the 2024 season, and he’s quickly become an important part of this offense with Chris Godwin out and Cade Otton banged up.

Washington ranks just 16th in the NFL in EPA/Pass on defense, and it’s given up 25 passing scores in 2024.

I love McMillan to find the end zone in this matchup at +155 odds.

Bucky Irving OVER 87.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – Peter Dewey

This is a great matchup for Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving, who has played 55 percent or more of the snaps in each of the last three games for Tampa.

Irving has cleared this line in two straight games, now he’s facing a Washington defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the season and ranks just 17th in EPA/Rush.

If the Bucs give Irving 15-plus touches like he’s seen the last four weeks (clearing this prop three times), he should have a big game against this defense.

Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 Receptions (-155) – Peter Dewey

I’m shocked to see this receptions number so low for Washington star Terry McLaurin, especially against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 21st in the NFL in EPA/Pass.

McLaurin has five or more catches in 11 of his 17 games this season, and he’s easily the No. option in this offense when it comes to the passing game.

This is a no-brainer, especially if Washington falls behind in this one.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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