Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Packers vs. Lions on Thanksgiving Day in NFL Week 13)

Thanksgiving Day is always a fun one for football fans, but this year is particularly exciting with all three games being marquee matchups. The action gets started at 1 PM ET with an NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in a game that will have a significant impact on how the division shakes out.

If you're looking for a few bets to place for this game, you're in the right spot. I'm going to break down my top three bets for this afternoon Turkey Day matchup.

Packers vs. Lions Best NFL Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

UNDER 48.5 (-110)
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Romeo Doubs UNDER 3.5 Receptions (+117)

Packers vs. Lions Prediction

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why my best bet for this game is the total to stay UNDER the set mark of 48.5:

The Thanksgiving Day slate of games will begin with a classic NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Not only is this a battle between two longtime rivals, but it also has huge implications for the NFC North race.

I'm surprised to see the total in this game is set so high. Usually, these high totals are reserved for games that include two elite offenses and two average-at-best defenses, when in reality, the two defenses in this game are just as good as the offenses. The Lions' defense ranks sixth in DVOA, and the Packers' defense ranks ninth. The Packers have also allowed the second fewest yards per play at 4.6, and the Lions are ninth at 5.1. Green Bay also ranks fifth in scoring defense, allowing only 18.4 points per game.

This total is a couple of points too high in my opinion, give me the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-110)

Lions Best Prop Bet

Jahmyr Gibbs is finally being treated as the primary running back in Detroit. He played 72.9% of snaps two weeks ago and then 73.5% of snaps this past week against the Giants. Those were the first two games all season he’s played 70%+ snaps. Now he gets to face a Packers defense that ranks 12th in opponent rush EPA and 17th in opponent rush success rate. Gibbs is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 86.5 rushing yards per game, so we're not asking too much from him to gain 70+ yards on the ground in this game.

Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 70.5 (-112)

Packers Best Prop Bet

Not only has Romeo Doubs' production fallen off lately, but he's also not playing as much as he was early in the season. After five straight games where he played 89%+ of offensive snaps, he hasn't played more than 76% of snaps in three straight games. As a result, he has a combined seven receptions in those games and has failed to create separation at times. The betting market is still treating him like their primary receiver, so I'm going to fade him in this spot.

Pick: Romeo Doubs UNDER 3.5 Receptions (+117)

Register with DraftKings today and get $300 in bonus bets instantly +3 months of NBA League Pass if you win your first bet. Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code offer by making a $5 deposit, applying your bonus token, and winning your first $5 wager.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!