Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Texans vs. Chiefs in NFL Divisional Round)

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs quest for a three-peat begins on Saturday.

The Chiefs host the Houston Texans, who knocked off the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round, in a divisional round matchup. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions are looking to become the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row, and they’re heavily favored in the divisional round.

Oddsmakers have set the Chiefs as 8.5-point favorites, and the last 18 teams that were favored by a touchdown or more in the NFL playoffs are a perfect 18-0 straight up.

Last 18 favorites of more than 7 points are 18-0 SU in the NFL Playoffs per @Bet_Labs ✅

Big Divisional Favorites

▪️ Chiefs -8.5 vs. Texans
▪️ Lions -9.5 vs. Commanders pic.twitter.com/1kVokKdpB8
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 16, 2025

That’s not the only trend in Kansas City’s favor.

Since Andy Reid took over as Kansas City’s head coach, it has thrived out of a bye week, going 13-4 straight up.

Despite that, Houston won’t be an easy out, especially after it picked off Justin Herbert four times in the wild-card round. Houston finished the regular season with the No. 6 defense in terms of EPA/Play, including the No. 5 pass defense.

CJ Stroud has won a playoff game in each of his first two NFL seasons, and the second-year quarterback could make a major statement that he’s one of the next great NFL quarterbacks with a win over the Chiefs on Saturday.

If you’re looking to bet on this game, the SI Betting team has you covered with props, anytime touchdown scorers, and picks for this game. Here’s a curation of some of our favorite plays for Chiefs vs. Texans.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Texans Moneyline (+340) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan
Dalton Schultz Anytime TD (+340) – Iain MacMillan
Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey
Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+205) – Iain MacMillan
Joe Mixon OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Houston Texans Moneyline (+340) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game, and he thinks that AN UPSET is in store on Saturday:

I'm going for a couple of home runs in the first game of the divisional round. I have been anti-Chiefs all season, so it's time to put my money where my mouth is. The Chiefs aren't nearly as good as their record is, and now have been overvalued by the betting market. Let's take a look at where they rank in a few key areas heading into this week:

Net Yards per Play: 20th (-0.2)
EPA per Play: 9th
Opponent EPA per Play: 15th
Success rate: 8th
Opponent Success rate: 13th
Red Zone TD%: 22nd
Opponent Red Zone TD%: 8th
Third Down Conversion%: 3rd
Opponent Third Down Conversion%: 27th

Does that look like the makeup of a team that should be this big of a favorite in the divisional round? You're only defense of the Chiefs at this point is that they're the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions, but if you look at this season in a vacuum, they are ripe to be upset.

The Chiefs' biggest strength is their third-down offense. Patrick Mahomes thrives on third down and their offense is third in the NFL in the area. If the Texans can pull off their upset, it'll be because of their third-down defense which ranks third in the NFL, keeping teams from converting third downs at a rate of just 35.5%. They're also fourth in opponent EPA on third down and third in opponent third down success rate.

Call me crazy, but I'll take the Texans to pull off the upset.

Dalton Schultz Anytime TD (+340) – Iain MacMillan

If you think MacMillan’s moneyline pick is bold, he has yet another bold play in the anytime touchdown scorer market this week:

If you want a long-shot touchdown scorer for the divisional round, look no further than Dalton Shultz of the Texans.

The Chiefs struggled to defend tight ends all season. They finished the regular season tied for allowing the second most receptions to the position at 106 while also allowing the most receiving yards at 1,191. In the regular season meeting game between these two teams, Schultz scored a touchdown while racking up five receptions for 45 yards. I can't pass this bet up at north of 4-1 odds.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

During his playoff career, Patrick Mahomes has been much more willing to run the ball when he’s in trouble.

For his career, Mahomes averages 29.1 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, carrying the ball an average of 5.0 times per contest.

That’s a major step forward from his regular-season numbers (3.9 carries, 20.0 rushing yards per game).

* Patrick Mahomes career rushing in regular season: 3.9 carries, 20.0 yards, 0.13 TDs per game

* Patrick Mahomes career rushing in playoffs: 5.0 carries, 29.1 yards, 0.28 TDs per game
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 16, 2025

This is a solid matchup for Mahomes on the ground as well, as Houston allowed the 11th most rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season. While this prop is a little higher than I’d like at 24.5, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mahomes rely on his legs against a Houston pass rush that gave Justin Herbert a ton of trouble in the wild-card round.

Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+205) – Iain MacMillan

While MacMillan is high on the Texans in this game, he still thinks there is a Chiefs receiver that is worth targeting to find the end zone:

Xavier Worthy took over as Patrick Mahomes' top target in the passing game late in the season. From Week 15-Week 17 Worthy combined for 31 targets, 21 receptions, 190 yards, and two touchdowns. If the Chiefs continue to use Worthy at that high of a clip he's going to prove to be a great bet to score at north of 2-1 odds.

Joe Mixon OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Joe Mixon played a huge role for Houston in the wild-card round, carrying the ball 25 times for 106 yards to secure the win over the Chargers.

Now, he faces a stout Chiefs run defense that is allowing just 4.1 yards per carry on the season. Still, I think Mixon is undervalued at this number.

The veteran running back had 57 yards on just 14 carries against the Chiefs earlier this season, and he’s cleared 59.5 rushing yards in eight games in 2024, going over 100 yards in every one of those matchups.

If Houston leans on Mixon for 20-plus carries again, he should get past this number.