Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Buccaneers vs. Rams on Sunday Night Football in Week 12

A pair of division leaders in the NFC face off on Sunday Night Football, as the Los Angeles Rams and Matthew Stafford (the MVP favorite) host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Mayfield and the Bucs have dropped two games in a row to fall to 6-4 in the 2025 season, and they’re looking to turn things around as 6.5-point road dogs in primetime.

Stafford and the Rams pulled off arguably their biggest and best win of the season in Week 11, knocking off the Seattle Seahawks to move to 8-2 and take the top spot in the NFC West in the process.

Now, the Rams are looking to move to 5-1 at home, and our NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is buying them as a favorite in this matchup.

The SI Betting team has breakdowns for a ton of picks in this matchup, including props, MacMillan’s spread bet and more on Sunday night.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Buccaneers vs. Rams

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-115) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Iain MacMillan
Davante Adams Anytime TD (-140) – Peter Dewey
Matthew Stafford OVER 22.5 Completions (-130) – Peter Dewey
Emeka Egbuka UNDER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-115) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s back the Rams to cover as home favorites:

There's a strong argument to be made that the Rams are the best team in the NFL. They're the only team in the league that ranks inside the top six in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play, and they also rank second in total DVOA. Now, they face a Buccaneers team that has been reeling. The Bucs rank 22nd in Net Yards per Play and 12th in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. They're also 13th in total DVOA. To make matters worse, they're 22nd in opponent dropback success rate, which could lead to a huge performance for the MVP favorite, Matthew Stafford.

This is a matchup between a team you should invest in and a team you should sell some stock in. Give me the Rams to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites.

Davante Adams Anytime TD (-140) – Peter Dewey

There are very few players that are better to wager on to find the end zone than Davante Adams this season:

This season, Davante Adams has 10 touchdown catches in 10 games, finding the end zone in seven of his appearances, including the last four.

During that four-game stretch, Adams has seven touchdown catches, and he should be able to make some noise against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 17th in EPA/Pass and has allowed 16 passing scores in the 2025 season.

Adams is arguably the best red-zone threat in the NFL, as he’s been targeted by Matthew Stafford a league-high 23 times in the red zone, turning those targets into 10 catches and nine touchdowns.

Even at -140, Adams is a must-bet in this primetime matchup.

Matthew Stafford OVER 22.5 Completions (-130) – Peter Dewey

This could be a shootout between two strong passing offenses, and that sets up well for Stafford to build on his MVP case in 2025:

Through 10 games this season, Stafford has at least 23 completions in five of them, and he’s completing 66.0 percent of his passes overall.

Tampa Bay is just 17th in EPA/Pass this season, and it’s allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the NFL. So, I expect Sean McVay to unleash Stafford in this game, especially if the Bucs hang around enough to keep the Rams throwing late.

Los Angeles has won four of five games at home, but it is only 3-2 against the spread in those matchups. So, we could see a close game down the stretch on Sunday night. Stafford has been arguably the most reliable quarterback in the league, throwing for 27 scores and just two picks. Plus, he hasn’t been picked since Week 3.

I love him in this market against a shaky Bucs defense on Sunday.

Emeka Egbuka UNDER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

Is Egbuka overvalued on Sunday night? The rookie has been an important piece this season, but he may have trouble getting free against a top-five pass defense:

Rookie Emeka Egbuka has been the No. 1 receiver for the Bucs for basically the whole season, but he only has five games with over 66.5 receiving yards and has cleared this line in just one of his last five games.

Defenses are sending a ton of attention Egbuka’s way with Mike Evans out, and Baker Mayfield has been forced to look elsewhere on offense.

Egbuka is now taking on a Rams team that ranks third in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season. I can’t trust him to clear this line, especially since he has caught just 45 of his 85 targets this season, including just 20 of his 47 in his last five games.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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