Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 5)

Breaking down the best picks and prediction for the Kansas City Chiefs-Jacksonville Jaguars matchup on Monday.

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne is a great prop target in Week 5. / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are back from the dead after winning two games in a row, and they’re favored to move to 3-2 in the 2025 season in Week 5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville has gotten off to an impressive 3-1 start, benefitting from a ton of forced turnovers in the process. The Jags knocked off the undefeated San Francisco 49ers in Week 4, and they’re aiming to pull off another upset at home on Monday night.

This game could end up being a huge one in the AFC playoff picture, as the Jags have a real shot to win the AFC South while the Chiefs may be in the wild card mix if they can’t overtake the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West. 

So, how should we bet on it? 

Over the last week, the SI Betting team has made a ton of picks for this Monday Night matchup, including a few player props. 

I’ve decided to share some of our favorites all in one spot to give bettors a crash course on the Chiefs vs. Jaguars showdown in Week 5.  

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Chiefs vs. Chargers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Kansas City Chiefs-Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 46.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan
• Xavier Worthy OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey
• Travis Etienne OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113) – Peter Dewey
• Brashard Smith Anytime TD (+500) – Peter Dewey

Kansas City Chiefs-Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 46.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week’s SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his best bet for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets every game, every week – and he’s eyeing the total on Monday: 

The Jaguars' defense is the reason why they're sitting at 3-1. They lead the NFL in opponent EPA per play, rank fifth in opponent success rate, and rank third in defensive DVOA. Offensively, they're just 18th in EPA per play and 14th in DVOA. Trevor Lawrence also ranks just 26th amongst starting quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE Composite, which is making me start to doubt the abilities of this Jaguars' offensive unit. The Chiefs' defense is also coming into this game off a strong defensive performance against the Baltimore Ravens, holding them to just 20 points.

With that in mind, I could see this being a low-scoring affair on Monday night.

Xavier Worthy OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey

If you’re looking for a Chiefs prop in this game, Worthy is a great bet after he shined in Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens:

Worthy returned to the lineup from a shoulder injury in Week 4, and he immediately was the No. 1 option in the Chiefs’ passing game.

The former first-round pick caught five of his eight targets for 83 yards, and he also carried the ball twice for 38 yards. The Chiefs clearly made a point of getting him involved on offense, even though he played just 58.9 percent of the team’s snaps.

I expect that snap count to rise as Worthy gets back to full health, and the Jaguars are an opportunistic defense (nine interceptions), but they’ve also allowed the ninth-most passing yards in the NFL.

This number feels way too low for Worthy as he cements himself as Patrick Mahomes’ go-to option on the outside. 

Travis Etienne OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113) – Peter Dewey

This is a great matchup for Jacksonville running back Travis Etienne, who has gotten off to a fast start on the ground in 2025: 

Jaguars running back Travis Etienne is in a prime spot to clear his rushing yards prop on Monday night.

First off, Etienne is averaging a whopping 6.1 yards per carry this season, and he’s picked up 394 rushing yards over his first four games. The Jaguars back has two games with over 100 rushing yards (including 124 in Week 4), three games with over 70 rushing yards and every game with at least 56.

Now, he’s taking on a Chiefs team that allows 4.9 yards per carry – fifth-most in the NFL – and ranks 28th in EPA/Rush on defense. This is my favorite player prop of the night on Monday. 

Brashard Smith Anytime TD (+500) – Peter Dewey

A long shot touchdown prop? Why not! Rookie running Brashard Smith could be worth a look with reports that he’ll see an expanded role in Week 5 and beyond:

Rookie seventh-round pick Brashard Smith is expected to get more playing time for the Chiefs with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco underwhelming, and he could be worth a look at +500 to find the end zone on Monday.

Smith played a season-high 26.0 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 5, handling seven touches and turning them into 36 yards. 

The young running back was used a lot in the passing game, receiving four targets from Mahomes and turning them into three catches for 27 yards. He could be undervalued at this number with the Kansas City backfield in flux at the moment. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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