Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Cowboys vs. Lions on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 14)

Thursday Night Football in Week 14 features a pair of fringe playoff teams in the NFC, as the Detroit Lions (7-5) host the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1).

This could be a game where the loser ends up falling out of the playoff race, as both teams are on the outside looking in of the NFC playoff picture entering this matchup.

Dak Prescott is now third in the odds to win the MVP, and he’s helped Dallas post one of the top offenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions have taken a step back on offense with Ben Johnson now in Chicago, and they’re a little banged up in this game with Amon-Ra St. Brown dealing with an ankle injury.

Still, oddsmakers have the Lions favored to bounce back from their Thanksgiving loss and knock off Dallas on Thursday.

The Cowboys have been rolling since the trade deadline, and there may be a few players worth betting on in the prop market in this game.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the favorite bets for this primetime matchup from the SI Betting team, including a spread pick from SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Cowboys vs. Lions

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dallas Cowboys +3 (-112) vs. Detroit Lions – Iain MacMillan
George Pickens OVER 5.5 Receptions (-132) – Peter Dewey
Jared Goff OVER 249.5 Passing Yards (-113) – Peter Dewey

Dallas Cowboys +3 (-112) vs. Detroit Lions – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, MacMillan shared his favorite bets for every game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s back the Cowboys to cover as underdogs on Thursday:

Thursday night's game is a loser goes home showdown between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Lions, despite having strong underlying metrics, are starting to implode due to poor variance and a plethora of injuries. Amon-Ra St. Brown may be out for Thursday's game, along with the likes of Graham Glasgow, Miles Frazier, Kerby Joseph, Kalif Raymond, and their top three tight ends.

Let's ride with a hot Cowboys' team whose defense has been completely revamped since the trade deadline.

George Pickens OVER 5.5 Receptions (-132) – Peter Dewey

The 2025 season has been a great one for Pickens, and he’s in a great spot to build on his impressive campaign on Thursday night:

Pickens has been on fire as of late, catching six or more passes in each of his last five games, including a six-catch game (for 88 yards) on Thanksgiving against the Chiefs.

Prescott targeted Pickens 13 times in that game, and the former second-round pick has at least nine targets in each of his last five games. In the 2025 season, Pickens has been targeted nine or more times nine of Dallas’ 12 games, giving him a great floor when it comes to this prop.

Overall, the star receiver has 105 targets, 73 receptions, 1,142 receiving yards and eight scores. He should make some noise against a Detroit defense that is 16th in the NFL in EPA/Pass and allowed four scores through the air to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving.

Jared Goff OVER 249.5 Passing Yards (-113) – Peter Dewey

This is a great matchup for Goff, as the Dallas defense has struggled all season against the pass, and Goff has actually cleared this line a ton in recent weeks:

Lions quarterback Jared Goff has thrown for 250 or more passing yards in each of his last five games, throwing for 256 yards on just 26 passes on Thanksgiving.

Goff has only cleared this prop in seven of his 12 games overall, but this is a great matchup against a Dallas defense that is 29th in the league in EPA/Pass and has allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL.

The Cowboys have given up over 250 passing yards per game, and they allowed Patrick Mahomes to throw for 261 yards on Thanksgiving. I’m buying Goff to have a big game at home on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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