Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Jets vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 11)

An AFC East battle takes place on Thursday night in Week 11, as the 8-2 New England Patriots and Drake Maye look to win their eighth game in a row, this time against the New York Jets.

Justin Fields and the Jets have knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns in back-to-back games after an 0-7 start, but they’re set as double-digit underdogs in the odds for this matchup.

New England has been one of the best teams in the league this season, ranking in the top 10 in yards per play, points scored, yards per carry allowed, EPA/Rush allowed and more.

Maye has ascended into MVP territory, as he became the favorite in the odds at the best betting sites after Week 10.

Can New England, which is 7-3 against the spread, cover against a Jets team that is bound for a top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this matchup, and I’ve decided to bring some of our favorites all into one place to help bettors make their decisions for Thursday night’s showdown.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Jets vs. Patriots

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

New England Patriots -12.5 (-108) vs. New York Jets – Iain MacMillan
Drake Maye UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-174) – Peter Dewey
Breece Hall OVER 16.5 Rush Attempts (-108) – Peter Dewey
Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+125) – Peter Dewey

New England Patriots -12.5 (-108) vs. New York Jets – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s betting on the Pats to cover at home:

You don't need me to tell you how much better the Patriots are than the Jets. We all know this, and the 11.5-point spread indicates as such. The reason why I'm laying this many points in a divisional matchup on a short week is that this is a stylistic nightmare for the Jets. The weakness of the Patriots' defense is their secondary, ranking 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 6.9 yards per throw. Their strength is stopping the run. They haven't allowed a 54-yard rusher yet this season, and they rank in the top 10 in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate.

Considering the Jets are averaging 19 fewer passing yards per game compared to the next-worst team, I struggle to think of how New York will move the ball against the Patriots' defense. I'll lay the points with New England on Thursday night.

Drake Maye UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-174) – Peter Dewey

Maye has thrown just five picks all season long, and he has a great matchup against a short-handed Jets secondary on Thursday:

There is only one team in the NFL that has yet to record an interception this season: the New York Jets.

I don’t see that ending in Week 11, as Maye has just five interceptions all season long and has completed 71.7 percent of his passes. He has thrown a pick in three straight weeks, but I’m betting on him to end that streak on Thursday.

The Jets are just 25th in the NFL in EPA/Pass on defense, and they traded away their best cornerback – Sauce Gardner – at the deadline earlier this month.

Maye shouldn’t have to do too much for the Patriots to win this game as major favorites, so I think he’ll stay turnover free against a Jets team that has forced just one turnover all season long.

Breece Hall OVER 16.5 Rush Attempts (-108) – Peter Dewey

Hall may be one of the few players that bettors can trust on the Jets to make something happen in the prop market:

The Jets have leaned on their running game in recent weeks, and it’s led to two wins in a row.

Breece Hall has 18 and 21 carries in those games, and he’s carried the ball 18 or more times on four occasions this season.

While the Jets may not run enough offense to get Hall over this number, I’d expect them to lean on the run to keep the Patriots’ offense off the field. New England allowed 91 yards on 19 carries to Tampa Bay’s running backs last week, and the Jets could try to replicate that with Hall.

The former second-round pick has played 61.3 percent of the team’s snaps this season and played over 71 percent of the snaps last week. He’s worth a look as one of the few players you can trust in this New York offense.

Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+125) – Peter Dewey

Diggs has found the end zone in each of his last three games, and he should be able to take advantage of a Jets secondary that has allowed 17 passing scores in nine games this season:

After not finding the end zone for seven straight weeks to open the 2025 season, Patriots No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs has scored in three games in a row.

Diggs has only played 55.6 percent of the snaps this season for New England, but he’s been targeted 61 times by Maye, reeling in 50 passes for 554 yards. He should be heavily involved on a short week, especially since Kayshon Boutte has been banged up for the Pats as of late.

New England has 19 passing scores this season, and the Jets have allowed 17 passing scores overall and traded away No. 1 corner Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline. That makes Diggs an extremely attractive target at this price on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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