Bet This Jalen Brunson Prop Bet Based on Past Playoff Success vs. Pacers

The stage is set for the Eastern Conference Finals between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers, and Jalen Brunson is the lead act.

The Knicks guard won the Clutch Player of the Year award, and he's lived up to that in the playoffs, averaging 28.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game while shooting 44.0 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from 3.

This is the second straight season that the Knicks and Pacers have met in the playoffs, and Brunson was special in their meeting last season, averaging 29.7 points per game while putting up over 40 points on two occasions.

In Game 1 on Wednesday, I believe he could be undervalued in the prop market, as DraftKings has him set at 28.5 points in his points prop. Brunson has seven games this postseason with 29 or more points, and I shared in my NBA Best Bets column -- Peter's Points -- why there should be some concern on the Indiana side of how to guard the Knicks star.

Best Jalen Brunson Prop Bet for Game 1 vs. Pacers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

From today's best bets column:

While the circumstances – and the supporting cast – are different for Brunson this season, I can’t look past how he dominated the Pacers in the playoffs last season. Indiana does not have a great one-on-one matchup for him, and I think the Knicks guard will be able to pick out the defenders he wants to attack with the Knicks pick-and-roll offense.

Here’s how Brunson fared against his three primary matchups in the second round last season:

vs. Andrew Nembard: 67 points (66.7% FG, 50.0% 3P) in 110 partial possessions
vs. Aaron Nesmith: 68 points (45.0% FG, 36.4% 3P) in 145.5 partial possessions
vs. TJ McConnell: 26 points (44.0% FG, 0.0% 3P) in 106.7 partial possessions

Now, Indiana may change its scheme this season with the Knicks looking completely different across the roster, but Nembhard and Nesmith have been the two primary defenders on the best wings/guards for opposing teams all season.

Brunson is taking a ton of shots per game -- and rightfully so -- in the playoffs, averaging 22.3 field goal attempts and 7.8 free throw attempts per game. With that usage, it's hard to fade the superstar guard with this line set right around his postseason average.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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