Betting the South Region in 2026 NCAA Tournament: Predictions, Odds Upsets for March Madness

The defending National Champions, the Florida Gators, enter the 2026 edition of the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed with a chance to successfully defend their title. They enter as the favorites to win the South Region.

In this article, we're going to take a closer look at the South Region. Florida may be the favorite, but there are other legitimate contenders like Houston, Illinois, Vanderbilt, and Nebraska. There's a strong argument to make that this is the most competitive region of the bunch.

All odds listed in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook

South Region Opening Odds

No. 16 Prairie View vs. No. 16 Lehigh (-3.5) *First Four*
No. 13 Troy vs. No. 4 Nebraska (-13.5)
No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (-11.5)
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 UNC (-2.5)
No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. Saint Mary's (-2.5)
No. 14 UPenn vs. No. 3 Illinois (-24.5)
No. 15 Idaho vs. No. 2 Houston (-24.5)
No. 9 Iowa (-1.5) vs. Clemson

Odds to Win South Region

Florida +165
Houston +250
Illinois +310
Vanderbilt +1100
Nebraska +1100
Saint Mary's +3500
Iowa +4500
UNC +6000
Clemson +6500
Texas A&M +14000
VCU +15000
McNeese +40000
Troy +50000
Prairie View +100000
UPenn +100000
Lehigh +100000
Idaho +100000

Each South Region Team's Odds to Win March Madness

Florida +750
Houston +1000
Illinois +1900
Vanderbilt +7500
Nebraska +10000
Saint Mary's +30000
UNC +25000
Clemson +25000
Iowa +30000
Texas A&M +35000
VCU +50000
McNeese +100000
UPenn +150000
Troy +200000
Prairie View +20000
Lehigh +200000
Idaho +200000

Predicting Who Will Win the South Region in 2026 NCAA Tournament

Pick: Houston +250

Florida is the weakest of the four No. 1 seeds, which makes the South Region prime for a different seed to advance to the Final Four. It's hard not to imagine the defending national runner-ups from making another deep run this month.

Houston is arguably the best defensive team in the country, not only shutting down opponents' shooting but also forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive boards, leading to the Cougars getting several extra scoring chances per game.

I have Houston returning to the Final Four for the second straight year.

South Region Upset Pick and Prediction

VCU +120 vs. UNC

North Carolina comes out of the ACC, which largely had a down season. The Tar Heels had an impressive win against Duke, but I don't expect them to perform strongly in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, VCU is an impressive Atlantic-10 team. The Rams rank 67th in effective field goal percentage and 61st in defensive efficiency.

I'll back VCU to get an upset win against the Tar Heels in a No. 11 vs. No. 6 showdown.

Texas A&M +130 vs. Saint Mary's

West Coast Conference teams not named Gonzaga continue to be overrated. Saint Mary's makes the NCAA Tournament almost every year, but they've failed to make the Sweet 16 in eight straight appearances. Fading the Gaels has been a good strategy for me throughout the years, so I'm going to follow that method again this year.

Texas A&M is an underrated team in this tournament. The Aggies rank 63rd in effective field goal percentage and 152nd in defensive efficiency. The Gaels rank outside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage and won't be able to hang with Texas A&M.