Betting Vegas: Public Going All In on Lions, Broncos for Christmas NFL Games

Gilberto Manzano | 1 Hour Ago

The public is backing the Broncos and Bo Nix against the Chiefs in Week 17. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Yes, the NFL’s tripleheader on Christmas might be the worst slate of standalone games in recent memory, but there’s also the possibility of profiting without breaking a sweat.  

The Cowboys and Commanders have nothing to play for, but at least one still has their starting quarterback with a pair of star receivers, while the other is likely going to start a third-string quarterback who has played for 14 different teams. NFL bettors don’t have to watch this meaningless game in Washington, but it’s going to be hard not to lay the touchdown on Dak Prescott’s Cowboys vs. Josh Johnson’s Commanders.

Many NFL bettors have already dropped plenty of money on the Lions, who are 7.5-point road favorites against the Vikings for the second game on Christmas. If there’s one game to bet on for this hideous tripleheader, this might be it because Detroit still has playoff hopes and Minnesota is scheduled to start undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer, who struggled in his NFL debut a few weeks back against the Seahawks.  

However, the Lions burned the public last week when they lost as 7.5-point home favorites against the Steelers. That was the biggest victory for the Vegas sportsbooks in Week 16. Oddsmakers can thank Detroit’s terrible defense for that one. 

“Detroit is probably the biggest disappointment in the NFC,” says Chuck Esposito, the race and sports director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas. “Knowing their coach [Dan Campbell], culture and against a third-string quarterback, just maybe [the Lions] still get in.

“The public will definitely back the Lions. I’m guessing this may be our biggest decision."

The night game on Thursday might not be as enticing as the first two because the Broncos are laying a whopping 13.5 points against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Denver has made it a habit of keeping games close vs. losing teams, and Kansas City certainly qualifies as a loser after hitting rock bottom in last week’s blowout loss against the struggling Titans. 

Even with Denver’s track record, Esposito is still expecting Bo Nix and the Broncos to be a public team because they’re likely going to face quarterback Chris Oladokun, a 2022 seventh-round pick who was thrust into the starting role after the injuries to Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew II. Also, the Broncos need a bounce-back game after losing to the Jaguars last week, and there’s a chance they secure the AFC West this weekend if they handle business against the Chiefs and the Texans beat the Chargers on Saturday afternoon. 

“I’m guessing the Broncos will get a lot of public support, especially coming off a loss and playing the Chargers in Week 18,” Esposito says. 

Now, I usually don’t approve of laying more than a field goal for divisional games, and it’s not a good sign that Esposito didn’t mention any sharp plays for the Christmas games, but there’s a strong chance we get what we’re all expecting—three blowout games. Washington, Minnesota and Kansas City have all been eliminated from postseason contention and all will likely start a third-string quarterback. 

I would be shocked if we get one close game, but the NFL is rarely predictable. Last week, the Browns covered vs. the Bills and the Raiders did the same vs. the Texans.  

“Standalone games still generate good action,” Esposito says. “However, when the schedule came out, these games all looked like monster games.”

Manzano’s NFL Week 17 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook 

Buck the trend: Texans (+2.5) at Chargers

The Chargers have been impressive and it’s hard to doubt a Jim Harbaugh–led team, but I can’t get over how bad of an offensive line Justin Herbert has to work with. Houston edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter should feast on Saturday. 

Enticing Bet: Bills (-1.5) vs. Eagles

With the Eagles already securing the NFC East, they don’t have much to play for and they’re also longshots to gain the No. 1 seed. The Bills will go all out because they’re still battling the Patriots for the AFC East title. 

Moneyline Dog: Titans (+124) vs. Saints

I might regret this because usually the play is to fade the Titans, not bet on them. But they’ve played better on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, especially rookie quarterback Cam Ward. 

On the other hand, rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has also played well for the Saints. This might be a sneaky good game. 

SuperDog: Falcons (+7.5) vs. Rams

This could be the Falcons’ Super Bowl because they’re tired of being reminded about the Rams owning their 2026 first-round pick. They’re going to do everything they can to not give L.A. a better draft pick.

Not So Risky: Seahawks (-7) at Panthers

Carolina has alternated wins and losses since Week 7, and after beating the Buccaneers last week, they’re due for a loss. Seattle will dominate this week. 

Stay Away: Steelers (-3) at Browns

Something tells me the Browns will prevent the Steelers from locking up the AFC North title this week. Also, look for Myles Garrett to break the single-season sack record against Pittsburgh. 

Parlay: Cowboys (-7) at Commanders; Lions (-7.5) at Vikings; Broncos (-13.5) at Chiefs

It can’t be that easy, right? I’m sure one team will screw it up on Thursday, but I just can’t get behind these wounded dogs with third-string QBs. 

Favorite Fave: Bengals (-7) vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals checked out a few weeks ago. Joe Burrow is going to light up this bad Arizona defense. 

Best Over/Under Total: Texans-Chargers (under 39.5, -112)

Expect plenty of big hits, field goals and high-level coaching from Harbaugh and DeMeco Ryans. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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