NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Has Value Ahead of Week 15 Matchup vs. Patriots

The NFL MVP race has been a two-man race for several weeks, as Matthew Stafford (-180) and Drake Maye (+200) are the clear-cut favorites in the market.

However, there may be a path for reigning MVP Josh Allen (+1500) to get himself back in the mix in Week 15.

Allen and the Buffalo Bills are 9-4 this season and hold the No. 6 spot in the AFC standings, sitting two games back of Maye and the Patriots with four games to play. But, the Bills could cut that deficit in half on Sunday, as they head to Foxborough to play Maye and company. With a win, the Bills would be just one game out of the division lead with three to play.

The case for Allen likely rests on the Bills winning the AFC East, but there is a decent path for them to get there. Buffalo has won back-to-back games after a tough loss to Houston, and Allen is absolutely carrying this offense in the process. The star quarterback has 22 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing touchdowns and is coming off an insane game against Cincinnati in Week 14.

The Bills came back from a huge deficit in the second half, and Allen finished the day with 251 passing yards and three scores as well as nine carries for 78 yards and a touchdown. So, the numbers are there for the Bills star, and he doesn’t have nearly as many weapons as Maye or Stafford do on the outside.

When it comes to the schedule, Buffalo has a chance to overtake the Pats. Here’s a look at the schedules for each of these teams down the stretch of the regular season:

New England: vs. Buffalo, @ Baltimore, @ NYJ, vs. Miami
Buffalo: @ New England, @ Cleveland, vs. Philadelphia, vs. NYJ

The Ravens are still fighting for a playoff spot in the AFC and may end up being favored against New England while the Dolphins are suddenly 6-7 and could be playing for their playoff lives in Week 18. New England is also an underdog at home in Week 15 against Buffalo.

The Bills are likely going to need to win out to have a chance to overtake the Patriots, but it’s not impossible. If Allen turns in a monster game in Week 15 and pulls out a win, his odds are going to shorten in this market and come much closer to Maye.

Stafford in the wild card here, as he could run away with the MVP if the Rams finish with the No. 1 seed, but L.A. has far from an easy schedule left:

Los Angeles: vs. Detroit, @ Seattle, @ Atlanta, vs. Arizona

A loss to Seattle in Week 16 could derail Stafford’s MVP case, and it would open the door for one of Maye or Allen to swoop in.

Since this race has essentially been narrowed down to four players, I really think Allen is worth a look since he has a chance to beat one of the other candidates in a head-to-head battle this week.

Here’s a full look at the MVP odds for the 2025 season before the action in Week 15.

Latest NFL MVP Odds for 2025 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Matthew Stafford: -180
Drake Maye: +200
Jordan Love: +1000
Josh Allen: +1500
Dak Prescott: +7500
Sam Darnold: +8000
Calebe Wiliams: +10000
Bo Nix: +10000
Justin Herbert: +12000

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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