Biggest Overreactions to Opening Lines for NCAA Tournament First Round

The bracket has been announced, and lines have been set for 28 of the 32 Round of 64 games for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. We still have to find out which four teams will advance from the play-in games, but that doesn't mean we can't start betting on the 28 matchups that have already been decided.

It's still early in the week, but there are a few opening-round games that I have some serious thoughts on. Let's dive into them.

All odds in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook

We Will See At Least Two 12 vs. 5 Upsets

The 12 vs. 5 upset is a March Madness staple, and this year is no different. These games usually feature good, but not elite, teams from major conferences facing off against the best teams from the smaller mid-majors, so it makes sense why we can see crazy things happen.

No. 12 High Point against No. 5 Wisconsin is going to be the one talked about the most. Wisconsin is a volatile team that can beat any team in the country if they have a hot shooting game, but they could also lose to any team in the country if they don't bring their best stuff. Meanwhile, High Point is a dangerous team on both sides of the floor and has the ability to defend Wisconsin's three-ball.

McNeese is another upset contender when they take on No. 5 Vanderbilt, who could be playing on tired legs after making a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Then there's Akron, which will face Texas Tech, a team that has some strong wins but a few baffling losses as well. The Red Raiders also have to overcome losing their best player, JT Toppin, for the rest of the season. Finally, there's Northern Iowa against St. John's. The Red Storm are an elite defensive team, but their shooting runs cold at times. If that issue pops up in the Round of 64, Northern Iowa is good enough to take advantage.

Two of these four 12 seeds will win in the Round of 64. I think it'll be High Points and Akron, but all four of those games present fascinating matchups that are ripe for an upset. Akron is available at +270 on the moneyline, and High Point is +410. McNeese and Northern Iowa are at +500 and +410 on the moneyline.

Arkansas Will Lose to Hawaii After Winning SEC Championship

Is a 12 vs. 5 upset not juicy enough for you? How about a +900 upset in a 13 vs. 4 matchup?

That's what I have in the Round of 64 game between Arkansas and Hawaii. It feels like it's not uncommon for a dark horse in a conference tournament win to go on to win their conference championship, but then fall short in the NCAA Tournament. It's hard to turn around after winning an unexpected tournament final and then get up for what should be an easy Round of 64 game. That's what I think will happen to Arkansas after winning the SEC Tournament.

Hawaii, the Big West champion, is a dangerous team. They are big and long, and rank eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. That's well about the Razorbacks, who come in at 228th in that metric.

Don't underestimate the Rainbow Warriors.

West Coast Conference Teams Get Too Much Love

It feels like the Gonzaga Bulldogs have been such a good program in recent history that it fools people into believing that other West Coast Conference teams are competitive, but they disappoint in the NCAA Tournament every year. Saint Mary's, the usual second team from the conference, has failed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen in eight straight NCAA Tournament appearances. This year, there's a third team from the WCC, Santa Clara.

Both those teams are, in my opinion, overvalued in the betting market. Saint Mary's is a 2.5-point favorite against an underrated Texas A&M squad in the Round of 64, and Santa Clara is just a 4.5-point underdog against an extremely tough Kentucky team.

I will be fading both of them this week.

Villanova Is Underrated

There's no question that UConn and St. John's were the kings of the Big East this year, but people are sleeping on the third competitor from the Big East, Villanova. The Wildcats rank in the top 90 in the country in effective field goal percentage, defensive efficiency, and effective possession ratio. They play disciplined basketball, and they're dangerous when they get hot from three.

Despite that, the Wildcats are 2.5-point underdogs against the Mountain West champions, the Utah State Aggies. Not only has the Mountain West historically underperformed in the NCAA Tournament, with San Diego State from three years ago being the exception, but the conference had a down year, and I'm not impressed with their champion.

I expect Villanova to turn some heads in that Round of 64 matchup.

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