Bills vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction for AFC Championship Game (Can KC Cover as Favorite?)

The Chiefs are home favorites to the Bills in AFC Championship action. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will once again face each other in the AFC Playoffs and for the second time in the Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen era, the AFC Championship will be on the line.

The two teams met in the AFC Championship at the end of the 2020 season and it resulted in a relatively easy 38-24 win for the Chiefs. Now, the Bills have yet another chance to get over the hump on Sunday.

The Bills got the better of the Chiefs in Week 11, beating them by a final score of 30-21. This is a team that know they can get it one, but with the stakes as high as they are, can they finally do it?

Let's check out the latest odds and then I'll dive into my prediction for the final score.

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, and Total for the AFC Championship

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Bills +1.5 (-105)
• Chiefs -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Bills +105
• Chiefs -125

Total

• OVER 47.5 (-110)
• UNDER 47.5 (-110)

The odds for this game have remained steady at DraftKings Sportsbook. The spread has increased to Chiefs -2 at some sportsbooks, like Caesars, but DraftKings has remained steady on both the point spread and total.

Bills vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction

In this week's edition of the "Road to Super Bowl 59," I broke down why I'm back the Chiefs to win and over as short favorites:

I have been saying all season the Chiefs haven't been as good as their record and calling them "frauds," but it's time to wave the white flag. I was wrong. Sometimes, you need to look past some of the numbers and while one side may have better metrics in certain areas, the Chiefs find ways to win big games time and time again. Remember, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity. I will no longer be doing that, it's time to join the dark side.

Not only that, but I have zero faith in the Bills' defense. I bet against them last week due to how bad their defensive numbers are, but they were saved by the Ravens coughing up the ball three teams and the Bills were still a dropped two-point conversion away from having the game tied late despite sporting a +3 turnover differential.

The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL in the second half of the season, including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate and 24th in opponent dropback EPA since Week 10. The Chiefs will hand the Bills yet another postseason loss.

When it comes to the total, I'm going to take the OVER. The Bills defense has been an issue for them in the second half of the season which means Josh Allen may have to turn this game into a shootout if he wants to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in his career. The Chiefs played in low-scoring games all season, but this one is gearing up to be a relatively high-scoring affair.

Final score prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 21

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!