Bills vs. Chiefs Odds Shifting Towards Kansas City in AFC Title Game

After opening at -105 on the moneyline, the Bills are now set at plus money in the AFC title game.

After opening at -105 on the moneyline, the Bills are now set at plus money in the AFC title game. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

We have line movement in the AFC championship game!

The Buffalo Bills opened as underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs after their divisional round win on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, but those odds have crept further in the Chiefs' favor over the last 24 hours.

Oddsmakers opened the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites, but it's the moneyline where things have changed at BetMGM Sportsbook.

According to BetMGM's John Ewing, Buffalo opened at -105 on the moneyline (an implied probability of 51.22 percent), but it has since moved to +105 (an implied probability of 48.78 percent).

It's interesting to see this line movement, as Ewing noted that 71 percent of the bets and 67 percent of the money is on Buffalo to win the game.

Early Chiefs-Bills betting at @BetMGM @Chiefs open -1.5, no movement
▪️ 44% of bets, 62% of money on Chiefs

Total open 48, no movement
▪️ 65% of bets, 73% of money on Over@BuffaloBills open -105, now +105
▪️ 71% of bets, 67% of money on Bills pic.twitter.com/IgtchE061C
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 20, 2025

With oddsmakers moving the odds in the Chiefs' favor, it seems to be a sign that they aren't worried about the current handle on Buffalo for Sunday's AFC championship.

Josh Allen has never beaten Patrick Mahomes in his playoff career, going 0-3 with as loss in the AFC title in the 2020 season and divisional round losses in the 2021 and 2023 seasons. In addition to that, Allen is 0-3 straight up as a road underdog in his playoff career, although he did win outright as a home underdog in the divisional round this season against the Baltimore Ravens.

Buffalo also won the regular season matchup between these teams back on Nov. 17 in Buffalo (30-21).

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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