Bills vs. Falcons Best NFL Prop Bets for Monday Night Football in Week 6 (Bet on Bijan Robinson)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Buffalo Bills-Atlanta Falcons matchup in Week 6 of the NFL season.

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is a great prop target in Week 6. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

An extremely interesting Monday Night Football matchup takes place in Week 6, as the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen take on the Atlanta Falcons and Bijan Robinson. 

This game has a ton of star power, as Allen, James Cook, Robinson, Drake London and others are all potential prop targets on Monday.

Betting on player props is a great way to get in on the primetime action, especially if you’re not sold on a side in this game. The Bills are set as road favorites in this matchup, but they’re coming off a loss at 8.5-point home favorites in Week 5 against the New England Patriots.

With Atlanta coming out of a bye, it should be fresh and ready to get to 3-2 in the 2025 season. 

I’m targeting Robinson as one of my three plays in the prop market for this Monday night battle in Week 6. 

Best NFL Prop Bets for Bills vs. Falcons

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Bijan Robinson OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
• Josh Palmer Longest Reception OVER 14.5 Yards (-110)
• Michael Penix UNDER 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-168)

Bijan Robinson OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Robinson has arguably been the best running back in the NFL this season, putting up huge numbers both on the ground and through the air. 

He’s racked up 314 rushing yards and 270 receiving yards in four games, but I’m targeting his rushing yards prop against a weak Buffalo run defense in Week 6. 

Buffalo ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (5.6), and it is just 28th in the league in EPA/Rush. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons lean on Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to move their offense in Week 6. 

Through four games, Robinson has 77 or more rushing yards just one time, but he has finished with 72 or more in three of his games. In such a favorable matchup, I think it’s reasonable to take Robinson to clear this prop, especially since he has 12 or more carries in every game this season. 

Josh Palmer Longest Reception OVER 14.5 Yards (-110)

Josh Palmer only has 12 catches in five games this season, but he’s been a big-play threat for this Buffalo offense.

Palmer has receptions of 23, 14, 32 and 32 in his first five games of the season, clearing this line on three occasions. He picked up a 23-yard grab in a two-catch game in Week 5, and he’s made two or more receptions in four of his five games.

While several other players on the Bills are sitting at around 18.5 or 19.5 for their longest reception, Palmer is much further down in this prop. I think he’s undervalued – even if he only gets a few targets – in Week 6. 

Michael Penix UNDER 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-168)

Through four games in 2025, Penix has just three touchdown passes, and two of them came in the Falcons’ win over the Washington Commanders in Week 4. 

As I mentioned in the Robinson prop, the way to beat this Buffalo defense is on the ground, as the Bills are 12th in the NFL in EPA/Pass. In addition to that, Buffalo has given up just six passing scores in five games, holding Drake Maye, Justin Fields and Spencer Rattler under this number.

Penix has been up and down throwing the ball this season, and he already has two games where he’s failed to throw a single score. I love the UNDER for this prop on Monday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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