Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Wild Card Round

Iain MacMillan | Jan 6, 2026

The Jaguars and Bills will face each other in a coin flip game in the Wild Card Round. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills failed to win the AFC East, but they still managed to clinch a wild-card spot and the No. 6 seed in the AFC Playoffs. As a result, they'll hit the road to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round.

The Jaguars may be the hottest team in the NFL entering the playoffs. They fell to the Texans by a score of 36-29 back in Week 10 and have since strung together eight straight wins, including victories against the Chargers and the Broncos.

Both teams have their work cut out for them in the opening round. Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet for this AFC matchup.

Bills vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Bills -1.5 (-104)
• Jaguars +1.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Bills -116
• Jaguars -102

Total

• OVER 51.5 (-115)
• UNDER 51.5 (-105)

Bills vs. Jaguars How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, January 11
• Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
• Venue: EverBank Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Bills Record: 12-5
• Jaguars Record: 13-4

Bills vs. Jaguars Betting Trends

• The OVER is 4-1 in the Bills' last five games
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the Bills' last five road games in Jacksonville
• Jaguars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games
• The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams

Bills vs. Jaguars Injury Reports

Bills Injury Report

• Jordan Poyer, S - Questionable
• DaQuon Jones, DT - Questionable
• Terrel Bernard, LB - Questionable
• Joey Bosa, DE - Questionable
• Maxwell Hairston, CB - Doubtful

Jaguars Injury Report

• Patrick Mekari, G - Questionable
• Cole Van Lanen, OT - Questionable
• Jalen McLeod, LB - IR-R
• Jourdan Lewis, CB - IR
• Jack Kiser, LB - IR

Bills vs. Jaguars Key Player to Watch

• Josh Allen, QB - Buffalo Bills

It may be now or never for Josh Allen to lead the Buffalo Bills over the hump and to finally win their first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history. He has done a great job of leading them to the postseason, but either Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes has ended his run. Now, there's no Burrow, Mahomes, or Lamar Jackson in the playoffs, leaving the path open for Allen and the Bills. With that being said, he'll have to overcome a subpar defense. He'll need to bring his best stuff every game to give Buffalo any hope.

Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction and Pick

I think you're going to be hard-pressed to see many people betting against Josh Allen in the playoffs this weekend, but I'm going to be one of the few people brave enough to do it. This isn't anything against Allen and the Bills' offense, but their defense leaves a ton to be desired, and I have a lot of concerns about their ability to stop any playoff-level offense.

The Bills simply can't stop the run. They rank 25th in opponent rush success rate, 31st in opponent rush EPA, and 30th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.1 yards per rush. Now, they have to take on the hottest team in football.

The Jaguars outrank the Bills in DVOA, coming in at sixth compared to the Bills at eighth, and they've not only been solid on both sides of the football, but they also have a top-five ranked special teams unit, which could make all the difference in a game that's set as a coin flip.

I'll take the Jaguars to take out the Bills and serve them yet another heartbreaking playoff loss.

Pick: Jaguars +1.5 (-118) via FanDuel

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