Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 28

The Philadelphia Phillies, riding a four-game home winning streak, will host the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, at 6:45 PM ET. The Phillies hold a 9.5-game lead on the Braves in the NL East, leading at 35–19, while the Braves sit in third at 25-28.

In Tuesday's series opener, the Phillies secured a 2–0 victory, with Ranger Suárez delivering six shutout innings. However, the win was tempered by an injury scare as Bryce Harper exited the game after being hit by a pitch.

Wednesday's pitching matchup features Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (6–1, 2.42 ERA) against Braves right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver (3–2, 3.67 ERA). Wheeler enters the game with a 22-plus-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 6. Smith-Shawver is looking to rebound after allowing seven earned runs over three innings in his last start against the Nationals.

I’ll break down my betting prediction and a player prop for Wednesday’s matchup.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

Braves +1.5 (-162)
Phillies -1.5 (+134)

Moneyline

Braves (+130)
Phillies (-154)

Total

Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-105)

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

Braves: AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 3.67 ERA)
Phillies Zach Wheeler (6-1, 2.42 ERA)

Braves vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, May 28, 2025
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): FDSN South, NBCSP
Braves Record: 25-28
Phillies Record: 35-19

Braves vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136 at FanDuel)

Wheeler is off to the best strikeout rate of his decorated career, dismissing 11.21 hitters per nine frames through 70 ⅔ innings so far. He’s reached at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, and he has plenty of upside to do so again, facing a team he’s maintained a 3.10 ERA against in his career.

His 32.7% strikeout rate ranks within Statcast’s top seven percentile while he’s amongst the game’s very best in expected ERA, projecting 2.14. There’s always plenty of rope to rack up strikeouts for Wheeler as he’s pitched at least six innings in all but one of his 11 starts this year. He’s getting chases, he’s getting whiffs — the price is right on Wheeler to fan another good batch of hitters on Wednesday.

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Bryce Harper’s availability remains in question leading up to first pitch, but with or without him, the Phillies can pounce on Smith-Shawver’s contact-vulnerable numbers while anchored by Wheeler’s hot streak. Smith-Shawver ranks inside the bottom percentile of hard-hit percentile and expected weighted on-base average on Statcast.

Aside from his last start in which the Nationals hit him for seven earned runs in three innings, he’s escaped some shaky games without disaster and is projected to regress with a 5.57 xERA. Besides, this Atlanta offense is simply not what it has been in recent years: the Braves produce a pedestrian .246/.318/.387 slash line.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+134 at FanDuel)

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