Braves vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, May 28

A Boston Red Sox lefty of old heads back to Fenway Park on Thursday afternoon to take on a new, up-and-coming lefty that has put together a strong start to the 2026 season.

Atlanta Braves star Chris Sale will take on his former team at 4:10 p.m. EST on Thursday, as the Braves look to win this rubber match after getting shut out on Wednesday night.

Boston is eight games under .500 and in last place in the AL East, but it has shown some signs of life as of late, winning five of its last 10 games heading into this series finale.

23-year-old lefty Payton Tolle (2.45 ERA) is on the mound for Boston, and he ranks in the 97th percentile in expected ERA this season, even though the Sox are just 2-4 in his six starts.

Can he duel Sale and lead Boston to an upset win on Thursday?

Oddsmakers have the Braves pretty heavily favored on the road, where they are 20-9 so far in the 2026 season.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for the final game of this three-game set on May 28.

Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Braves -1.5 (+119)
Red Sox +1.5 (-143)

Moneyline

Braves: -149
Red Sox: +124

Total

7 (Over -114/Under -105)

Braves vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

Atlanta: Chris Sale (7-3, 1.89 ERA)
Boston: Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.45 ERA)

Braves vs. Red Sox How to Watch

Date: Thursday, May 28
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Fenway Park
How to Watch (TV): BravesVision, NESN
Braves record: 37-19
Red Sox record: 23-31

Braves vs. Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bets

Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

Chris Sale OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-141)

This season, Boston has actually hit left-handed pitching pretty well, ranking No. 2 in the league in batting average and No. 8 in OPS.

So, even though Sale has been great to open 2026, I still think Boston could get five or more hits against him on Thursday afternoon. Sale has allowed five or more hits in five of his 10 starts in 2026, and he has an expected batting average against of .217.

Boston’s offense has started to turn things around after a slow start, ranking third in MLB in batting average over the last 15 games.

Braves vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Boston has not been able to win Tolle’s starts – even though he’s been lights out – but I do think there is a case to bet on both starters to hold these offenses in check in the early going.

The Braves are one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking third in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), OPS and batting average, but Tolle has held just about every team he’s faced in check this season.

The young lefty has an expected ERA of 2.20, and he ranks in the 95th percentile in expected batting average against (.182) in the 2026 season. Tolle has given up just 10 earned runs in 36.2 innings of work, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his outings.

Meanwhile, Sale has been so far in 2026, allowing one or fewer runs in eight of his 10 starts. He’s led the Braves to a 7-3 record in his outings, and he ranks in the 80th percentile in expected ERA and the 78th percentile in expected BAA.

Tolle has better advanced numbers than Sale, but the Braves star is facing a shaky Boston offense that is 25th in wRC+, 20th in OPS and 29th in runs scored this season.

I think both of these starters will get off to solid starts, so I don’t mind taking the UNDER in the first five innings. While I lean with the Braves to win this game (20-9 on the road), I don’t love the idea of fading Tolle entirely since he has posted some impressive numbers in 2026.

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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