Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 17

The Broncos are road favorites in Week 17.

The Denver Broncos and quarterback Bo Nix are favored on Christmas. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Week 17 is massive for Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, as they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16 and need to win out to guarantee the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Denver is set as a major favorite on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have lost their top two quarterbacks – Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew – to knee injuries. That leaves KC with Chris Oladokun under center, and he was unable to lead the team to a win over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

The Chiefs’ season is in the tank, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team rest some banged up players over the final two weeks of the regular season. 

Meanwhile, Denver allowed 34 points to Jacksonville in Week 16 and lost Pat Bryant and Dre Greenlaw to injuries in the process. Can the Broncos rebound on a short week to pick up a much-needed win. 

Denver beat the Chiefs (with Mahomes) earlier this season, but it has gone just 6-8-1 against the spread in the 2025 campaign.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this AFC West clash on Christmas Day. 

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Broncos -10.5 (-110)
• Chiefs +10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Broncos: -650
• Chiefs: +470

Total

• 36.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Broncos vs. Chiefs How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
• Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Broncos record: 12-3
• Chiefs record: 6-9

Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Broncos are 1-0 against the Chiefs this season.
• The Broncos are 6-8-1 against the spread this season.
• The Chiefs are 0-1 against the spread without Patrick Mahomes.
• The Chiefs are 5-9-1 against the spread this season.
• The Broncos are 2-3-1 against the spread on the road this season.
• The Chiefs are 4-3-1 against the spread at home this season.
• The UNDER is 11-4 in the Chiefs’ games this season.
• The UNDER is 8-7 in the Broncos’ games this season. 

Broncos vs. Chiefs Injury Reports

Broncos Injury Report

• Delarrin Turner-Yell – questionable
• Nate Adkins – questionable
• Justin Strnad – questionable
• Pat Bryant – doubtful
• Dre Greenlaw – questionable

Chiefs Injury Report

• Patrick Mahomes – out
• Gardner Minshew – out
• Rashee Rice – questionable
• Tyquen Thornton – questionable
• Trent McDuffie – questionable

Broncos vs. Chiefs Key Player to Watch

Bo Nix, Quarterback, Broncos

It’s pretty simple for Denver, Nix needs to play a complete game and lead this team to a stress-free win ahead of what could be a massive showdown in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Nix threw for 352 yards, one score and one pick in Week 16, but his interception came at a crucial time with the Broncos trying to erase a two-score deficit. 

All season long, Nix has been up and down, and Denver’s offensive ceiling rests on his shoulders. If he’s going to be efficient completing passes, the Broncos should roll against a short-handed Chiefs team.

But, if he’s turnover prone and struggles to sustain drives, Denver could find itself in yet another one-score game, a common theme this season.

Overall, Nix has 24 touchdown passes, 10 picks and has thrown for over 3,600 yards. 

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

Look, Denver’s loss in Week 16 is concerning, but let’s not overrate this Chiefs team – even at home – with a third-string quarterback under center.

Kansas City lost 26-9 against a Tennessee team that has just three wins all season in Week 16, and the Broncos are a much better team on both sides of the ball.

Denver’s EPA/Play numbers on defense have started to slip in recent weeks, which is a concern long term, but it’s another reason to avoid this extremely low total (36.5) on Thursday night. 

Instead, I’m going to lay the points with a Denver team that should be able to win by a wide margin against a Chiefs team that has already packed things in for 2025. 

This is a game where Denver needs to make a statement.  

Pick: Broncos -10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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