Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 5

The Milwaukee Bucks’ season is on life support, as they are down three games to one in their series with the Indiana Pacers and Damian Lillard (torn Achilles) is out for the season.

Just in: Milwaukee Bucks star Damian Lillard has been diagnosed with a torn left Achilles tendon, sources tell ESPN. MRI today revealed the severity. A devastating end to his season. pic.twitter.com/ysZ0nw8gxW
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 28, 2025

Game 4 was a brutal blow for the Bucks on multiple fronts, as Lillard’s injury not only ends this season (in all likelihood) for the Bucks, but it also is going to cost them in a big way next season.

As for the Pacers, they have been elite in this series, winning three games by eight or more points while posting an offensive rating of 120.2.

After making the Eastern Conference Finals last season, Indiana may have been overlooked a bit heading into this series. Now, the Pacers are major favorites to close out this matchup in five games.

Can they get it done?

I have a pick for a side in this matchup as well as some player props to consider for Bucks-Pacers Game 5.

Bucks vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Bucks +7.5 (-108)
Pacers -7.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Bucks: +270
Pacers: -340

Total

223 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bucks vs. Pacers How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, April 29
Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
Series: Pacers lead 3-1

Bucks vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

Tyler Smith – questionable
Damian Lillard – out

Pacers Injury Report

Aaron Nesmith – probable
Isaiah Jackson – out
Bennedict Mathurin – questionable

Bucks vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

Bobby Portis OVER 13.5 Points (-125)

With Lillard out for the season with a torn Achilles, Bobby Portis may be the No. 2 option in this Bucks offense behind Giannis.

During the regular season, Portis averaged 13.9 points per game, and he’s cleared 13.5 points in two of the four games in this series. Plus, Portis finished the regular season strong, putting up 14-plus points in each of the three games he appeared in following his 25-game suspension.

BP has taken double-digit shot attempts in each of his last three games, and his usage should rise with Dame out. He’s worth a shot with the Bucks needing a win to keep their season alive.

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 10.5 Assists (-120)

This may seem like an obvious pick, and Haliburton is averaging too many assists per game for me to pass him up in what could be the final game of this series.

After a strong close to the regular season passing the ball, Haliburton has 10 or more dimes in four straight in this matchup, averaging 17.0 potential assists per game.

After a 15-assist showing in Game 4, I expect Hali to dominate this weak Bucks defense, especially since Milwaukee is facing a major uphill battle to win this game without Dame.

Haliburton had 12 assists in each of the first two games in Indiana in this series.

Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – here at SI Betting why the Pacers should roll in Game 5:

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been fantastic in this series, but he doesn’t have enough help for Milwaukee to win this game, never mind this series.

The Bucks have lost by 26, eight and 19 in their three losses, and their lone win came in a game in which Gary Trent Jr. scored 37 points. I’m not holding my breath and expecting that to happen again, and now with Damian Lillard out for the season with a torn Achilles, the Bucks’ margin for error is even slimmer.

The Pacers dominated Game 4 after Lillard went down, and the Bucks looked shell shocked now that they’re down their second-best player. I don’t see them competing in Game 5, as it’s been pretty evident all series that after Giannis there is no guarantee for instant offense for the Bucks.

The fact that they are relying heavily on Kevin Porter Jr. to carry some minutes on the offensive end is a terrible sign.

In this series, the Pacers have an offensive rating of 120.2 and the second-best effective field goal percentage of any playoff team. Simply put, they are getting whatever they want on the offensive end.

This series felt over as soon as Dame went down, and the Pacers will make it official on Tuesday night.

Pick: Pacers -7.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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