Bucks vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, Feb. 25

Houston, do we have a problem?

The Houston Rockets got off to a great start in the 2024-25 regular season, but they’ve dropped seven of their last 10 games and have fallen to the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference entering Tuesday’s matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Rockets are a young team, so growing pains are expected, but they now have just a 4.5-game lead on the No. 7 seed, a significant step back from where they were just a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee has won four straight, including its last three games while Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a minutes limit as he works his way back from a calf strain. The two-time MVP is expected to suit up again on Tuesday, as the Bucks have listed him as probable for this matchup.

Houston’s defense has been the driving force for it all season – it sits at No. 4 in defensive rating – but can it slow down the Giannis-Damian Lillard duo tonight?

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup including the latest odds, player props to bet, injuries and my game prediction to help you bet on Bucks vs. Rockets.

Bucks vs. Rockets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Bucks +3.5 (-108)
Rockets -3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Bucks: +140
Rockets: -166

Total

226 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bucks vs. Rockets How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 25
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Toyota Center
How to Watch (TV): Space City Network, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Bucks record: 32-24
Rockets record: 35-22

Bucks vs. Rockets Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

Giannis Antetokounmpo – probable
Gary Trent Jr. – probable
Bobby Portis – out
Pat Connaughton – out

Rockets Injury Report

Dillon Brooks – questionable
Fred VanVleet – questionable
Jae’Sean Tate – questionable
Cody Zeller – out
Jack McVeigh – out
N’Faly Dante – out

Bucks vs. Rockets Best NBA Prop Bets

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 27.5 Points (-105)

It’s finally time to get back on board with Giannis in the prop market, and we have a discounted number to do it with.

Giannis has been on a minutes limit due to his calf injury, but he played nearly 32 minutes on Sunday against Miami and took 18 shots, finishing with 23 points. Shockingly, he didn’t get to the free-throw line in that game.

I expect that to change on Tuesday night, and Giannis is set well below his season average of 31.0 points per game against Houston. Prior to his calf injury, Giannis had scored 30 or more points in eight of 10 games, averaging 32.8 points per game over that stretch.

With his minutes returning closer to normal, he’s a must bet on Tuesday night.

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

Jalen Green UNDER 4.5 Assists (-160)

Jalen Green had a 10-assist game his last time out for Houston, but bettors shouldn’t fall into the trap for him on Tuesday night.

First off, Fred VanVleet (questionable) may return in this game, which would immediately take a bunch of playmaking responsibility off of Green’s plate. On top of that, Green is averaging just 3.1 assists (on 6.1 potential assists) per game this season.

I expect him to fall back closer to his season average after an anomaly game on Saturday.

Bucks vs. Rockets Prediction and Pick

The potential return of Fred VanVleet could be huge for the Rockets, as they are just 5-7 straight up in the 12 games that he’s missed.

However, I’m not sold on Houston covering this number against a Milwaukee team that has won four games in a row to shift into a top-four seed in the East.

The Bucks extended Giannis Antetokounmpo’s minutes limit in their most recent win over the Miami Heat, and Milwaukee outranks the Rockets in net rating over its last 10 games even though Giannis missed six of them.

On top of that, the Rockets have struggled to cover the number when favored at home (10-12 against the spread), and they’re in the middle of their worst stretch of basketball as of late.

While I don’t want to write this Houston team off, the young squad is showing some growing pains – especially when FVV isn’t on the floor. They haven’t played well offensively (24th in offensive rating in their last 10 games), and they lack a No. 1 option on a nightly basis to make up for not having their point guard running the show.

I’ll take the points with the surging Bucks on Tuesday.

Pick: Bucks +3.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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